In a dire warning for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a comprehensive opinion poll by the Chanakyaa news channel has projected a significant defeat for the party in the upcoming 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. The survey, conducted in October 2025 and released this month, paints a picture of a government grappling with severe public dissatisfaction on issues of corruption, law and order, and unfulfilled promises.
The survey presented by Rangaraj Pandey, reveals a stark contrast between the public’s perception of the state and central governments. While the BJP-led central government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoy a net positive rating, the state government under Chief Minister MK Stalin is facing a powerful wave of anti-incumbency.
Key Findings Point to DMK’s Downfall
The survey, which sampled 2,989 voters across 32 assembly constituencies, identified several critical weaknesses for the DMK government:
Overwhelming Dissatisfaction with State Government: A full 45% of respondents rated the DMK government’s overall performance as “Poor,” compared to only 20% who found it “Superb.” This negative trend extends directly to the Chief Minister, with 41% rating his personal performance as “Poor.”
Law & Order in Crisis: Perhaps the most damning statistic is on public safety. A massive 56% of respondents rated the law-and-order situation in Tamil Nadu as “Poor” – the highest negative rating in the entire survey. This is a significant liability for CM Stalin, who also holds the Home Ministry portfolio.
Corruption a Major Allegation: The survey indicates that corruption is a primary public grievance. 60% of respondents believe that corruption has “increased” under the DMK regime. Furthermore, 41% viewed the Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax raids on DMK ministers as “legitimate actions,” while only 29% saw them as “political vendetta,” suggesting a credibility crisis for the government.
Unfulfilled Promises: The DMK’s track record on fulfilling its ambitious poll promises appears to be a major letdown for voters. While 58% felt promises were “partly fulfilled,” a significant 31% stated the government “did nothing.”
Deputy CM’s Popularity Plummets: The survey spells particular trouble for Deputy CM Udhayanidhi Stalin, who received the most negative personal rating, with 52% of respondents rating his performance as “Poor.”
Electoral Implications
The survey’s voting intention question, contextualized by the performance ratings, points to a dramatic reversal from the 2024 Lok Sabha results, where the DMK alliance secured 45% of the surveyed vote. The current mood suggests that this support is crumbling under the weight of state-level anti-incumbency.
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