After the year 2009 and 2 parliament elections, the BJP in Tamil Nadu contested this election without an alliance and without any Dravidian majors in the fold. DMDK lost its steam after the crushing defeat in 2016, but qualifying DMDK as a Dravidian major in 2014 would not have been an understatement. In 2011, DMDK won 29 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu and became the opposition party in the Tamil Nadu legislative assembly. With a 10% vote share in 2009 and 8% in 2011, DMDK aligned with BJP in 2014 and contested 19 of the 39 seats in the 2014 Parliament elections. Alongside DMDK, MDMK and KMDK also contested in that election alongside BJP.
KMDK is a minimalistic party in the Kongu region. It contested independently in the 2009 parliament elections in the Coimbatore parliament seat and received 1,28,070 votes, while DMDK received 73,188 votes.
In 2009, the BJP received 37,909 votes. The combined votes received by DMDK, KMDK, and BJP in 2009 was 2,39,167. BJP, DMDK, and KMDK received 29% of the overall votes, which improved by 5%, with MDMK, PMK, and the Modi wave in 2014, taking the overall vote share of BJP in the 2014 elections to 33.6%.
It may be noted that the BJP received:
- 4,49,269 votes in 1998
- 4,30,068 votes in 1999 and
- 3,40,476 votes in 2004
The BJP fought all these 3 elections alongside either the DMK or the AIADMK. However, when it contested alone in 2009, it received only 37,909 votes, indicating that the BJP struggled to gain a foothold in Coimbatore.
In the 2011 assembly elections, the BJP received a modest number of votes in the assembly constituencies under the Coimbatore Parliament Constituency. However, in the 2014 Parliament elections, the party’s vote count skyrocketed to 3,89,701. This was mainly due to an effective vote transfer from the KMDK and DMDK to the BJP, indicating a shift in the political landscape.
In 2016, the BJP had the leading votes in only 39 booths; it led in only 374 booths despite being in an alliance with the AIADMK. Contesting alone without the Dravidian majors, the BJP received the highest votes in 623 booths. On the other hand, AIADMK, which considers Coimbatore to be its stronghold, had received the leading votes in just 37 booths.
It is evident that the booths that historically voted for AIADMK have considered voting for DMK for reasons best known to the leaders of AIADMK.
Despite various alliance arrangements, the BJP has never received the highest votes in 257 assembly constituencies in the last four elections (2021, 2019, 2016, 2014). Of these 257 booths, BJP has received the highest votes in 53 booths.
Before the commencement of the elections and the candidate’s announcement, BJP had about 15% vote bank in Coimbatore Parliament Constituency and has increased today to 32.5%. AIADMK received a 17% vote share. Going by the argument that BJP always had a 33% vote share in Coimbatore means BJP should have received above 50% votes in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
The 4,50,132 votes received by the BJP in 2024 is historically the highest number of votes received by the party in the Coimbatore Parliament Constituency without aligning with AIADMK, DMK, or DMDK/KMDK.
Vallavaraayan is a political writer.
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