Karnataka News

Asianet – Jan Ki Baat Karnataka Poll Survey Predicts BJP To Be Single Largest Party

May 6, 2023
The Commune

According to Asianet Suvarma News’ 2nd #JanKiBaatKarnatakaPoll pre-poll survey, the BJP will be the single largest party in the upcoming Karnataka state assembly election. The survey predicted that BJP will secure between 100 to 114 seats, while the runner up congress will be securing 86 to 98 seats. JDS will be distant third with 20 to 26 seats. The survey predicted that Modi factor is helping BJP, Muslim votes are consolidating with congress and JDS vote share is contracting.

According to the poll, the BJP will receive 38 to 40.5% of the vote, the Congress will receive 38.5 to 41.5% of the vote, and the JDS will receive 14 to 16.5% of the vote. The survey predicts 70% of Lingayats support the BJP, while 21% and 9% support the Congress and JDS, respectively. The BJP, Congress, and JDS share 24%, 18%, and 54% of the Vokkaliga votes, respectively. The Congress receives 83% of the Kurba vote, while the BJP and JDS receive a tiny proportion. It is reported that Vokkaligas vote share of JDS has dropped since 2018 and that the party’s ability to pull other caste votes also has come down.

Caste wise vote share:

OBC:                                BJP – 64%,   Congress – 34%,  JDS – 2%

SC(Non Lambani):    BJP – 32%,   Congress – 58%,  JDS – 10%

Reddy:                            BJP – 55%,   Congress – 40%,  JDS – 5%

Konkani:                         BJP – 58%,   Congress – 36%,  JDS – 6%

Yadav:                               BJP – 56%,   Congress – 40%,  JDS – 4%

Region wise survey shows BJP leads in Coastal Karnataka and Kittur Karnataka, while the INC leads in Kalyan Karnataka. Neck and neck battle is seen between BJP and Congress in Bengaluru region. JDS vote share is dipping in the Old Mysore region, and the dip is split between INC and BJP.

As far as VIP seats are concerned CM BasvarajBommai leads from Shiggaon, DK Shivkumar leads from Kanakpura, CT Ravi leads from Chikmanglur, & BY Vijayendra leads from Shikaripura, while Jagadish Shettar trails from Hubali Dharwad Central. According to the survey, there are 27 constituencies where the margin of vote is less than 6000.

Region wise seat share:

Coastal Karnataka:                BJP – 15,   Congress – 4,  JDS – 0

Central Karnataka:                BJP – 13,   Congress – 11,  JDS – 2

Mumbai Karnataka:              BJP – 31,   Congress – 18,  JDS – 1

Hyderabad Karnataka:        BJP – 16,   Congress – 21,  JDS – 3

During the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, when most pollsters gave a decisive verdict for either BJP or Congress it was JKB which was closer to the final numbers.

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