With the political landscape in Tamil Nadu witnessing significant shifts, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections promise to be both intriguing and crucial. The recent split between the Edappadi K. Palaniswami-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has created a ripple effect, leaving the field open for various political alliances and new contenders. While the dominance of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in these elections seems almost certain, the real battle appears to be for the second position, with potential candidates being EPS and Annamalai.
What Will The Be Possible Scenarios?
The 2021 assembly polls witnessed a notable 5% difference in vote share between the AIADMK and DMK alliances. The DMK alliance secured 45%, while the AIADMK alliance garnered close to 40% of the vote share. However, circumstances have evolved significantly since then, with shifting alliances and changing voter sentiments.
The 2022 local body polls revealed BJP’s growing influence, as it secured 5.4% of the vote share, while the AIADMK managed 26%. Additionally, with O. Paneerselvam’s expulsion from the AIADMK, the party has weakened in southern Tamil Nadu, and the Mukkulathor community’s support for the OPS-TTV Dhinakaran duo appears strong, potentially contributing 4-6% of the vote share.
Scenario 1: DMK Alliance vs. BJP-OPS-TTV Alliance vs. AIADMK-PMK-PT Alliance
In this scenario, the DMK retains its 2021 winning alliance, the BJP aligns with OPS-TTV, and EPS manages to maintain the support of the PMK, PT, and other smaller parties.
The DMK alliance is expected to sweep all 39 seats with a vote share ranging from 40-45%. Meanwhile, the BJP-OPS-TTV alliance may secure 15-18% of the vote, potentially regaining the NDA’s 2014 vote share of 19%. The AIADMK-PMK-PT alliance could finish second with a vote share between 20-24%.
Scenario 2: DMK Alliance vs. BJP-OPS-TTV-PT-PMK Alliance vs. Solo EPS-led AIADMK
In this scenario, the DMK retains its 2021 winning alliance, the BJP aligns with OPS-TTV, PT, and PMK, while EPS goes solo.
The DMK alliance is still anticipated to win all 39 seats with a vote share ranging from 40-45%. Annamalai-led NDA may secure 22-25% of the vote, surpassing the EPS-led AIADMK, which could drop to less than 20% and potentially finish third.
Crucial Factors
The absence of a prominent Prime Ministerial (PM) face has historically affected political outcomes in Tamil Nadu. In 2014, the lack of a strong PM face resulted in the DMK finishing third in many seats behind the NDA. The AIADMK may face a similar fate without a PM face in the upcoming elections.
Additionally, the alliance between the DMK and Congress appears unlikely to be disrupted, given their strong rapport. Any parties defecting from the DMK to the AIADMK are expected to have minimal impact, possibly adding no more than one percent to the AIADMK’s vote share.
Conclusion
As Tamil Nadu’s political landscape continues to evolve, two possible scenarios for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections stand out. While the DMK alliance remains the frontrunner, the battle for the second position intensifies, with potential contenders including the BJP-OPS-TTV alliance and the AIADMK-PMK-PT alliance.
The influence of the Anti-Modi wave has diminished, O. Paneerselvam’s expulsion from the AIADMK has weakened the party in southern Tamil Nadu, and the emergence of Annamalai as a formidable leader may impact the electoral landscape. It would not be surprising if Annamalai-led NDA surpasses its 2014 vote share of 19%, potentially edging past the AIADMK and establishing a credible second position.
This could mark the beginning of a new era in Tamil Nadu politics—the Annamalai Era. Regardless of the outcome, the second-place finisher in these elections is likely to emerge as the primary challenger to the DMK in the 2026 elections, setting the stage for a dynamic and evolving political landscape in the state.
Subash is a finance professional and a portfolio manager based out of Chennai.
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