The Edappadi K. Palaniswami led AIADMK has officially left the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), citing the recent remarks by BJP Tamil Nadu President K. Annamalai as the reason, albeit without naming him.
The party had held a consultative meeting with senior leaders, district secretaries, former MPs and MLAs on 25 September 2023 and passed a resolution to exit from the NDA.
In its press release, the AIADMK said that the state leadership of the BJP has been deliberately defaming the AIADMK, its leaders Annadurai and Jayalalithaa with ulterior motives.
It further added that the state leadership (Annamalai) has been belittling the massive public meeting that happened in Madurai on 20 August 2023 and defaming Edappadi K. Palaniswami.
“Valuing the thoughts, wishes and sentiments of the 2 crore cadres, the AIADMK from today, has unanimously decided to withdraw itself from the National Democratic Alliance and the BJP.“, said the press release.
It is noteworthy to mention that just days ago before the announcement AIADMK leader Palaniswami met Union Minister Amit Shah. Though the meeting was termed as a ‘routine’ and a ‘courtesy call’, it is speculated that alliance matters for the Lok Sabha polls were discussed during the meeting.
The Events Leading To The Breakup
The move of the AIADMK to exit the NDA comes following the announcement by AIADMK leader D Jayakumar on 18 September 2023 who categorically stated that there is no alliance between his party, led by K. Palaniswami, and the BJP in Tamil Nadu after Annamalai mentioned a historical incident involving Dravidian leader Annadurai in his speech.
The BJP leader had recently stated that freedom fighter Pasumpon Muthuramalinga Thevar had lambasted CN Annadurai (founder of DMK) for ridiculing Hinduism and that Annadurai who was kept in hiding in Madurai only managed to escape after issuing an apology. This comment elicited a strong objection from the AIADMK not immediately but days after the comment was made, with the second rung leaders of the party condemning Annamalai that they will not tolerate disrespect of their leader after whom the party is named and walks on the path laid by him.
This episode had fanned the flames between the two parties where the relationship was already smoking with frequent flare-ups.
Earlier in an interview to Times of India, Annamalai (knowingly?) had mentioned that former Chief Ministers have been convicted by a court of law, an indirect reference to Jayalalithaa, when asked for his agreement on whether the period between 1991-96, when Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK was in power, was one of the worst periods in terms of corruption. Though it is a matter of fact that the late AIADMK supremo was convicted in the disproportionate assetscase, it left the AIADMK in fumes with the party even passing a resolution against Annamalai for his comments in June 2023.
But these two instances weren’t the only time that the BJP state chief had provoked the AIADMK. In fact, Annamalai had been signaling his intention to sever ties with the AIADMK for quite some time.
Earlier in March 2023, reports of a closed-door meeting of the BJP Tamil Nadu unit emerged (intentionally leaked?) where Annamalai had apparently conveyed to cadres his intentions to go it alone for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In his speech, Annamalai reportedly said, “We can grow the party only if we contest alone in Tamil Nadu. If the BJP decides to form an alliance with ADMK, I will resign as president and be as a mere party worker.”
Annamalai also reportedly stated that he won’t stand with folded hands for the sake of alliance and a decision would be made in May 2023.
This is where it all started from the BJP’s end, with split opinions emerging within the state unit. One group preferred going it alone while a few others were comfortable and wanted an alliance with the AIADMK. Even the central high command of the BJP reportedly tried to douse the flames that Annamalai had ignited with the BJP National President JP Nadda making it clear that the alliance with AIADMK was intact and should continue for the Lok Sabha polls. Since then, supporters of Annamalai have been indulging in a war of words with AIADMK supporters on social media often targeting the AIADMK leadership.
At the outset, it may seem like the AIADMK’s fallout with the BJP was Annamalai’s doing, whereas it is not. It is the AIADMK which had started attacking the BJP first. Immediately after the 2021 Assembly Elections, former Minister CV Shanmugam blamed the BJP for AIADMK’s defeat saying that the Dravidian party lost the votes of minority community because of BJP. Even before the Assembly elections, senior leaders close to Palaniswami like KP Munusamy commented that “national parties are trying to destabilize Dravidian parties“.
But what made things worse was how an internal turmoil within the BJP was exploited by the AIADMK. Edappadi K. Palaniswami, the shrewd politician that he is, played power politics on his part by inducting CTR Nirmal Kumar, the former BJP Tamil Nadu Social Media Wing head who quit the party due to his differences with Annamalai. Nirmal Kumar had personally attacked Annamalai in his resignation letter which he made public and moments later he was in the AIADMK. The battle lines were drawn after this episode.
Annamalai started doing power politics by tacitly backing O. Paneerselvam who went to the extent of backing the BJP if the party were to field a candidate for the Erode East by-polls. Till the last moment, the BJP kept AIADMK on tenterhooks and extended support only at the last moment. Even then, the chemistry between the alliance was nowhere to be seen with the AIADMK deliberately avoiding BJP flags and leaders during campaign. Another indication of a cleaving alliance came when the AIADMK chose to contest against the BJP in Karnataka elections, the erstwhile karma bhoomi of Annamalai.
After the Erode East by-polls, Annamalai only began asserting himself stating that he is not a mere ‘Project Manager’ but a leader in his own right. While the AIADMK wanted to deal only with ‘Delhi’, Annamalai made it clear that he would be nice to the AIADMK only if they treated him as an equal.
From then on, Annamalai kept hinting that it was only a matter of time that the alliance would end. Even when he released his DMK Files, Annamalai took the occasion to hit at the AIADMK saying he would not stop at exposing the corruption of just the DMK but would target corrupt leaders in every political party that has ruled Tamil Nadu, obviously hinting at the AIADMK.
Until the AIADMK broke the alliance, the frequent barbs between the AIADMK and BJP had already estranged the cadres of both the parties on the ground. So, if one were to ask if Annamalai is the main reason for the AIADMK-BJP split, the answer is Yes and No.
What Next?
The BJP has never ousted an ally on its own. But given that the AIADMK has exited itself, it is doubtful whether the Central BJP leadership would make any attempts for a truce. The bridge has been burnt.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election isn’t the AIADMK’s election, per se. Ten years back, Jayalalithaa had the audacity and the calibre to position herself as a prime ministerial candidate and had enthralled her voters with the slogan “Modi or the Lady?“. But Mr. Palaniswami is no Jayalalithaa and he knows that. He is not contending to be a Prime Minister. But, he will try to stay in the good books of the Central BJP just like the BJD in Odisha and the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh. He will definitely not make acerbic attacks on the BJP during the campaign for Lok Sabha polls. He may at best canvass on the point that the AIADMK will be in good relations with any government at the Centre (hinting at BJP) for the welfare of Tamil Nadu people. After the polls, if the AIADMK manages to win 10-12 seats, they would extend outside support to the Modi government. The BJP too will probably extend the courtesy of not attacking the AIADMK during the campaign and will focus its energy in attacking the DMK.
But to the likes of ‘Savukku’ Shankar who are fantasizing about the prospect of AIADMK allying with Congress, and courting minority voters for support, their hopes are likely to be dashed. The last thing that Palaniswami would want is a two-front war with the BJP at the Centre and the DMK in the State until 2026. If God forbid, the AIADMK myopically chooses to ally with the Congress they will be made to bite dust.
So, will there be a tacit understanding between the AIADMK and the BJP even without an alliance to defeat the common enemy in the Lok Sabha polls? Only the results will tell.
On the other hand, the break-up of BJP-AIADMK is both good and bad news for the DMK. The DMK which is already facing heavy anti-incumbency in just 3 years, will be rejoiced at the prospect of the anti-DMK votes getting split between the AIADMK and the BJP-led alliance. However, the AIADMK has opened a Pandora’s box with its latest move. If one were to closely observe, the DMK’s reactions to the split have been muted. That is because, it has given a trump card for the smaller parties in the DMK alliance to negotiate a better deal for them. They might start flexing their muscles for more seats as some of those parties who feel suffocated to be in the DMK alliance will be tempted by a breath of fresh air with AIADMK throwing its doors open.
The VCK had already evinced interest in joining hands with the AIADMK. Thol Thirumavalavan had ‘requested’ AIADMK to break away from ‘Sanatan forces’ and has been consistently asking the AIADMK to sever ties with the BJP indicating that he wouldn’t hesitate to jump ship.
Very recently in July 2023, AIADMK’s mouthpiece D Jayakumar had indicated (invited?) that many from the DMK alliance (Thirumavalavan?) would join the AIADMK alliance in the coming months. But him joining the AIADMK alliance is determinant on the PMK. If the PMK chooses to go ahead with the DMK, Thirumavalavan will shift camp to AIADMK alliance. He might be able to convince the two Communist parties which had hitchhiked on the DMK’s strength to jump ship if they don’t get atleast 2 seats from the DMK.
So, the AIADMK-BJP split is not that much of a problem for both these parties but is sure to give a migraine to the DMK in the lead up to the elections. Mr. Stalin may have to concede the same number of seats as last time if not more.
But going by the sharp and polarized state of politics today, it is highly doubtful if the VCK would part ways with the DMK. The ideological baggage that VCK carries is too heavy for the AIADMK to handle given the VCK’s position on the entire Sanatana Dharma controversy. The AIADMK risks to lose Hindu votes if it accommodates VCK in the hope of getting votes of minority communities. While Thirumavalavan would be able to sway Dalit votes in the Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Chennai, Chengalpattu regions, his community (Paraiyar) is sparsely populated down south and his party’s strength isn’t strong below Madurai. Given that the AIADMK already has the bitter experience of being cut to size by TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK in southern Tamil Nadu during the 2021 Assembly elections, it would be a huge gamble for the AIADMK to ally with VCK. Also, the Arunthathiyar community is concentrated in the western and southern parts of Tamil Nadu. They’ve traditionally voted for AIADMK, thanks to MGR and Jayalalithaa’s outreach. The AIADMK won’t risk muddying that pool by bringing in Thirumavalavan as it may not go well with the Arunthathiyar community.
Thirumavalavan can neither swing the minority votes away from the DMK. It is a myth that the AIADMK lost support of minorities due to BJP. The truth is that minorities were never a considerable votebank for the AIADMK. They have stood and will continue to stand rock-solid behind the DMK (at state-level) and Congress (at Centre).
The Possible Political Formations
Based on the ongoing political developments, Tamil Nadu is poised for a three-way contest.
A DMK-led alliance comprising of DMK, Congress, VCK, CPI, CPI-M, MDMK, IUML, MMK, will remain intact with Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) being a possible addition. But the allies now have a bargaining chip to negotiate more seats for themselves. Note that the term I.N.D.I alliance has been deliberately omitted because it really doesn’t matter.
Possible seat sharing: DMK – 21, Congress – 9+1 (Puducherry), CPI – 2, CPI(M) – 2, VCK – 2, IUML – 1, MMK – 1, MNM – 1
The BJP-led rainbow alliance would comprise PMK, AMMK (TTV Dhinakaran has already evinced interest in allying with the BJP), DMDK, Tamil Maanila Congress, Dr. Krishnasamy’s Puthiya Tamizhagam, Parviendhar’s Indhia Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), and AC Shanmugam’ New Justice Party.
Possible seat sharing: BJP – 14+1 (Puducherry), PMK – 8, AMMK – 8 (including OPS), DMDK – 5, IJK – 1, NJP – 1, PT – 1, TMC – 1
The AIADMK might contest alone or at the maximum may accommodate the Communists if they choose to leave the DMK alliance.
Since, Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi has no stakes in the Parliament elections, they may not contest the elections (like 2014) and extend tacit support to the AIADMK or contest for namesake just to keep his party machinery running.
Who Will Gain?
In the case of a three-way contest, the anti-incumbency votes will get split benefitting the DMK alliance which will get a major portion of the 39 seats. So, it is a win for the DMK and the party will probably return the courtesy by extending support for crucial bills in the next term.
The NDA had managed to poll 18.8% votes in 2014 (5.5% for the BJP), despite being shadowed by Jayalalithaa, under whose leadership the AIADMK managed to sweep 38 out of 39 seats.
At the very least, the BJP will have to replicate its 2014 performance. The BJP has definitely gained a new energy under the charismatic leadership of Annamalai but it remains to be seen if this new energy will crystallize into votes.
While it’s not entirely accurate to equate local body poll results with Lok Sabha elections, for the purpose of estimating the BJP’s minimum strength, let’s consider the percentage of votes it garnered in the 2022 local body polls. This election marked the first time since 2014 that the party contested independently. The BJP won 9.26 lakh votes — 5.4 per cent of the total vote share. 9.26 lakh votes from just contesting in 5400 seats (42% of the total 12838 seats). For arithmetic convenience, let’s consider hypothetically that BJP fielded candidates in all seats. Then the votes polled by the party would be:
926000 x 12838 divided by 5400 = 2201479 or 22 lakh votes
which is roughly the same it had polled in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls (2258496 – 5.56% of total 4,06,20,440 votes polled).
So, as on date, we can consider that the BJP has a vote share of 5.5% in the state. So, Annamalai’s BJP should take efforts to atleast make this 5.5% into an 8-10% by capitalizing on the heavy anti-incumbency against the DMK and secure 2-3 MPs. Win or lose, if Annamalai manages to increase BJP’s vote share to 8% with the other alliance parties together polling at least 10%, Annamalai will cement his position as the indisputable leader of the Tamil Nadu BJP.
If the BJP had stayed in alliance with the AIADMK, it would’ve been cut to size. The 2019 Parliament and 2021 Assembly elections are proof that vote transfer from the AIADMK to BJP is insignificant even if the both parties were to be in alliance. In the 20 seats that the BJP contested in the 2021 Assembly elections, the party managed to win only 4 of which 2 seats had a victory margin of a mere 1.1% (Coimbatore South – Vanathi Srinivasan won by jut 1728 votes), and 0.2% (Modakurichi – C. Saraswathi won by just 281 votes).
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections presents a unique opportunity for the BJP in the state to test its strength. So, the AIADMK-BJP split will be a gain for the BJP and in particular Annamalai.
The AIADMK too has something to gain from the split. They no more have to consider the BJP to be a burden. It will also be a litmus test for Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s acceptance in the region below Madurai. The AIADMK recently held a mega public meeting at Madurai, which established EPS as a force to be reckoned with. The place of this meeting is significant because the region is said to be a stronghold of the Thevar community. If the AIADMK manages to secure at least 10-12 MPs and a couple more from the Mukkulathor stronghold regions, EPS would further rise in stature.
The real battle between the BJP and AIADMK will therefore manifest in Madurai. Annamalai has already taken the lead over the political chessboard here by pitting Annadurai against the freedom fighter and Thevar icon Pasumpon Muthuramalinga Thevar just weeks before Thevar Jayanthi (30 October). The AIADMK now finds itself in a catch-22 situation. In a way, the AIADMK has straight away walked into Annamalai’s trap and the upcoming Thevar Jeyanthi event at Pasumpon will be closely watched. Incidentally, Annamalai’s En Mann En Makkal yatra has also been concentrating its efforts in south Tamil Nadu mobilizing and galvanizing people. Annamalai’s game plan seems to be to and try sabotage AIADMK’s chances in this region with the help of AMMK, OPS, and the backing of the Thevar community.
But we would be making a mistake if we underestimate EPS. He is no ordinary politician. He has risen through the ranks to reach where he is now and has established himself as the indisputable leader of the AIADMK after a legal and political struggle. The mega rally at Madurai is a testimony that the AIADMK is a sleeping lion and will go for the kill when it wants. The fact that Palaniswami was seated right next to Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the NDA meeting highlights the camarederie and the goodwill he commands from the BJP national leadership which cannot be wished away.
Politics that happens on the outside where parties play to the gallery is completely different from what happens behind the screen.
But in this entire episode, there is one large picture that is hidden in plain sight. The BJP national leadership seems to have no problem in letting the AIADMK go, a trusted ally from a state that contributes 39 seats. That can only mean one thing – the BJP is confident of securing a historic win with a thumping majority with or without MPs from Tamil Nadu.
In short, the BJP-AIADMK split is a win-win-win for BJP, AIADMK and the DMK.
Kaushik is a political writer and communications consultant.
Click here to subscribe to The Commune on Telegram and get the best stories of the day delivered to you personally.