In the wake of Pakistan’s claimed “precision” airstrike on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) targets in Kabul, regional observers have been quick to question both the success and the strategic wisdom of the operation. The strike, touted as a bold move against terrorism, may have far-reaching consequences beyond the immediate tactical objective. While Islamabad celebrates a symbolic show of force, the reality on the ground could spell deeper instability for Pakistan itself, with ripple effects across Afghanistan, the Pashtun belt, and regional geopolitics involving China, Russia, India, and the United States.
Now let us dissect Pakistan’s motivations, missteps, and the broader implications of this operation, arguing that the strike may have accelerated Pakistan’s loss of influence in Afghanistan, while emboldening militant factions and straining regional fault lines further.
Let us assume that the TTP leader(ship) has been eliminated – so what, the group is without leadership for now! Then what, new leadership will emerge and that’s how it has always been. The group will prevail and grow.
Reports to the contrary suggest that Noor Wali Meshud has survived, so what – the strikes were just symbolic and unsuccessful! Then what, the scale and intensity of actions and operations by TTP in Pakistan especially in KPK province is going to skyrocket.
Neutralising terrorist leadership may delay terrorism but is not going to stop it.
Pakistan has just implemented India’s playbook. They are good and fast learners.
Timing and location of these strikes has just ensured the snapping the last thread of leverage that Pakistan and ISI had with Taliban. They have a more hostile neighbour to their west than to their east. This will have serious ramifications in terms of Pakistan – Afghanistan relationship, role of Afghan refugees within Pakistan, Pashtun dynamics in the region and involvement of extra regional players. Pakistan just lost Afghanistan.
Somewhere a hunch in me suggests the involvement of a likely pro Pakistan faction of Taliban in enabling these strikes – may be the Haqqanis! If it is them – the wedge between different factions of Taliban widens. Either they get into a fight in disarray or the pro Pakistan factions will be eliminated. If this hunch of mine isn’t true, then Pakistan has lost any semblance of leverage over any faction within Taliban.
This strike doesn’t bode well for the interests of China and Russia in this region, and they won’t take it lightly. What happens to Trump’s greed for Bagram base? No idea – but one thing is sure – intel and surveillance support for this strike for sure has come from the Americans. This makes the regional dynamics more complex.
With the acting FM of Afghanistan in India, India will hedge with a statement castigating Pakistan for violating the sovereignty of Afghanistan but will have a wide field for play in the covert background. Our leverage will further increase with and in Afghanistan (read Taliban). We should quietly secure and grow our interests in Kabul (rest is better unsaid here).
Prognosis
Taliban will up the anti-Pakistan ante in Kabul. Pakistan will support ISKP against Taliban (NRF is a small inconsequential player as of now). TTP will intensify its actions and operations in KPK and Balochistan. Pakistan is going to see a wild-wild West. Afghanistan will again witness a complex turmoil and so will western provinces of Pakistan. We should just cement our interests and watch the play unfolding with popcorn in our hand, without losing sight of internal security within Bharat. TTP leader eliminated or alive doesn’t matter – TTP ideology has survived much more than these strikes and is still alive and until Pakistan stops supporting any form terrorism, it will remain a victim to the same of its own doing.
Kautilya is a defence enthusiast.
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