With the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election approaching, a joint opinion survey conducted by Dinamalar and Chanakyaa has sought to map the prevailing public mood across the State, covering voter preferences, assessments of governments at the Centre and State, leadership ratings, and key issues such as law and order.
The survey, conducted in January 2026, is the first collaborative effort between Dinamalar and Chanakyaa. According to the organisers, the exercise was designed to capture voter sentiment at a time when political alignments, campaign narratives, and public perceptions were still evolving.
Methodology And Sample
The survey covered a final sample of 3,821 respondents drawn from across Tamil Nadu. Survey teams initially reached out to more than 4,500 individuals, of which around 4,480 responses were received. These were subsequently filtered to remove duplicate entries, incorrect sampling, and responses that did not reflect ground realities, following standard psephological scrutiny, to arrive at the final sample size.
Respondents were selected from a wide geographical spread, ranging from Chennai to Kanyakumari, and across multiple Assembly constituencies. These included urban and semi-urban seats such as Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni, represented by Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin, as well as constituencies like Saidapet, Dindigul, Sriperumbudur, Thirupparankundram, Tiruvannamalai, Central Madurai, Chengalpattu, Pudukkottai, and Thali near Hosur.
The constituency selection was not random but based on factors such as past electoral performance, regional sentiment, and demographic diversity, to ensure representativeness.
Voting Recall And Sample Validation
As part of sample validation, respondents were asked whom they had voted for in the 2024 general election. The responses showed:
- 43% said they voted for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance
- 30% for the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) alliance
- 14% for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance
- 13% for Naam Tamilar Katchi
The survey team noted that these figures broadly aligned with the actual vote shares recorded in the 2024 election, indicating that the sample reflected the broader electorate reasonably well.
Assessment Of The Central Government
When respondents were asked to rate the performance of the Union government, opinions were divided:
- 29% rated it as “very good”
- 31% rated it as “bad”
- 31% described it as “okay” or neutral
On the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, responses showed a similar pattern:
- 32% rated his performance as “very good”
- 30% rated it as “bad”
- 38% said it was “okay” or neutral
The survey noted that compared to earlier election cycles, when negative ratings for the Centre and the Prime Minister were significantly higher, the current split indicated a more even and stabilised perception.
Centre–State Relations
On whether the Modi-led Union government was discriminating against Tamil Nadu, public opinion was evenly split:
- 32% said the Centre was discriminating against the State
- 32% said it was not
- 36% said they were unsure
Survey analysts pointed out that the near-identical ratios across questions on Union government performance, the Prime Minister’s performance, and perceptions of discrimination suggested internal consistency in responses.
Performance Of The DMK Government
Turning to the State government, the survey found a less favourable assessment of the DMK’s four-and-a-half-year tenure. Asked about the performance of the DMK government:
- 22% rated it as “very good”
- 30% said it was “okay”
- 48% rated it as “bad”
The survey highlighted that even among voters who had supported the DMK in the previous election, a relatively small proportion rated the government’s performance as “very good”.
Leadership Ratings
Chief Minister M K Stalin fared slightly better than his government as a whole:
- 26% rated his performance as “very good”
- 30% said it was “okay”
- 44% rated it as “bad”
Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin recorded the highest negative rating. His performance was rated as:
- 20% “very good”
- 29% “okay”
- 51% “bad”
Survey organisers noted that the focus on the Deputy Chief Minister reflected the prominence he has acquired in political discourse, particularly amid opposition allegations of dynastic politics and speculation about future leadership succession within the DMK.
Law And Order
Law and order emerged as a major area of concern. Despite official data cited earlier by former Director General of Police Shankar Jiwal indicating a reduction in certain crime categories based on National Crime Records Bureau statistics, public perception remained sharply negative.
Respondents rated the law-and-order situation in Tamil Nadu as follows:
- 17% “very good”
- 28% “okay”
- 55% “bad”
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