The results of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have once again exposed a fundamental truth about the Congress–RJD ecosystem: when they lose, they don’t introspect — they manufacture conspiracy theories. Their latest excuse is not just desperate, it is mathematically absurd. According to their melodramatic script, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise “deleted 65 lakh voters” — all, by some miracle, exclusively from their own support base.

This claim would have been laughable if it wasn’t being peddled so seriously.

The Numbers Completely Busts The 65-Lakh Deletion Myth

Let’s examine the official vote counts from 2020 and 2025 — numbers that don’t bend for convenient propaganda:

2025 Bihar Assembly Elections:

BJP: 10,081,143

JDU: 9,667,118

RJD: 11,546,055

INC: 4,374,579

2020 Bihar Assembly Elections:

BJP: 8,202,067

JDU: 6,485,179

RJD: 9,738,855

INC: 3,995,319

Now look at what actually happened:

BJP gained 18 lakh votes.

JDU gained 31 lakh votes.

RJD gained 18 lakh votes.

Congress gained nearly 4 lakh votes.

Yes — even the Congress party that is shouting the loudest about “deleted voters” saw its vote tally increase. Yes — even RJD, the supposed “victim,” saw its vote count swell by 18 lakh.

In fact in absolute terms, RJD has got more votes than BJP.

If 65 lakh opposition voters were genuinely deleted, how on earth are all major parties, including Congress and RJD, showing substantial gains?

The 65-Lakh Claim Is Nothing More Than A Excuse To Cover Incompetency

For weeks, the Congress–RJD camp has ranted about “6.5 million voters” being removed. But if such a massive and targeted deletion had really happened:

Opposition vote totals would have collapsed.

At the very least, they would have stagnated.

Instead, we see the opposite: Growth across all major parties — including those screaming conspiracy.

The 65-lakh bogeyman is nothing but a post-defeat pacifier for Rahul Gandhi who suffered a humiliating defeat on Children’s Day.

Higher Turnout, More Votes, Zero Suppression

The 2025 election saw a more engaged electorate. More people voted. More votes were cast for every major party. A state that supposedly lost 65 lakh voters somehow clocked higher participation — a statistical impossibility if the Congress–RJD story were even remotely true.

So Why Did Congress–RJD Lose? 

Their loss had nothing to do with voter rolls and everything to do with: uninspiring leadership, stale messaging, weak organisation, and the utter lack of a coherent vision for Bihar.

Blaming SIR is simply their way of dodging accountability — a refusal to confront the fact that Bihar rejected them on politics, performance, and credibility.

The 65-Lakh Myth Has No Legs

Data is a stubborn, unforgiving thing. And Bihar’s 2025 numbers make one fact crystal clear:

There was no mass disenfranchisement.
There was no 65-lakh deletion.
The 65-lakh excuse is only a facade to cover Rahul Gandhi’s miserable leadership.

The people of Bihar weren’t robbed of their votes.
They just showed two dynasts their aukaat.

S. Kaushik is a political writer.

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The post Busting The ’65-Lakh Voters Deleted’ Propaganda: Bihar’s Numbers Reveal Congress-RJD Did Not Lose Because OF SIR appeared first on The Commune.

General Zia-ul-Haq’s doctrine of “strategic depth” promised Pakistan security against India through control over Afghanistan. Four decades later, it has delivered only chaos, radicalization, and a collapsing state.

When Pakistan’s military ruler General Zia-ul-Haq conceived the doctrine of strategic depth in Afghanistan during the late 1970s, it was hailed within Rawalpindi’s corridors as a stroke of genius, a long-term plan to secure Pakistan’s vulnerable western flank, expand its influence into Central Asia, and neutralize the perennial threat from India. In this vision, Afghanistan would become both Pakistan’s ideological buffer and its geopolitical backyard. But history has a brutal sense of irony. What was once imagined as Pakistan’s path to regional dominance has turned into the very instrument of its undoing. Today, Afghanistan stands not as Pakistan’s strategic depth but as its strategic death, a mirror reflecting Pakistan’s own self-destruction.

The Roots of an Illusion

Pakistan’s fixation with Afghanistan predates Zia’s military regime. The seeds of paranoia were sown in the early years after independence. From 1947 onwards, Afghanistan refused to recognize the Durand Line as a legitimate border and instead supported the concept of Pashtunistan, claiming Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (now Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and parts of Balochistan as its own. These irredentist claims led to repeated diplomatic ruptures, including the severance of relations in 1955 and 1962. For a fragile new state already obsessed with the Indian threat on its eastern frontier, the specter of an unfriendly Afghanistan on its west was intolerable.

By the time the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan’s military establishment saw an unprecedented opportunity. General Zia-ul-Haq, a hardline Islamist and master manipulator of Cold War geopolitics, perceived the Afghan jihad not merely as an anti-Soviet campaign but as a vehicle for Pakistan’s grand ambitions. With massive U.S. and Saudi funding, Zia sought to create a pliant, pro-Pakistan regime in Kabul that would forever silence Afghanistan’s territorial claims and extend Islamabad’s influence deep into Central Asia.

Zia’s generals rationalized this policy with strategic logic. They argued that Pakistan’s narrow geography made it vulnerable to India. In the event of a war, a friendly Afghanistan would provide the Pakistani army “space to fall back” and regroup. But beneath this military jargon lay a deeper ideological project to Islamize both Pakistan and Afghanistan under the banner of a shared jihadist identity that could serve as Pakistan’s tool for regional dominance.

The late Pakistani scholar Eqbal Ahmed warned against this dangerous delusion, calling Pakistan “a country caught in an iron web of wrong assumptions, magmatic concepts, failed policies, and increased sectarian violence.” His words now read like prophecy.

The Mirage of Strategic Depth

The entire doctrine was built on a fatal misreading of history and geography. Real security does not come from manipulating neighbors or nurturing militias; it comes from internal cohesion, economic strength, and peaceful diplomacy. Zia’s Pakistan ignored this fundamental truth and instead chose to export instability under the banner of “Islamic solidarity.”

During the 1980s, Pakistan became the primary conduit for U.S. and Saudi aid to the Afghan Mujahideen. The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) handpicked militant leaders like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, funnelling weapons and money to factions that promised loyalty to Islamabad. Yet as soon as the Soviets withdrew and the Afghan factions began fighting each other, Pakistan’s dream of controlling Kabul began to unravel.

Seeking to impose order, the ISI midwifed the rise of the Taliban in the 1990s—a movement of Pashtun seminarians trained in Pakistan’s Deobandi madrassas. Initially, Islamabad viewed the Taliban as obedient protégés who would secure Pakistan’s western border and grant it leverage over India. But this illusion crumbled swiftly. Once in power, the Taliban refused to recognize the Durand Line, rejecting Pakistan’s territorial claims. They also began fostering a radical Pashtun Islamic identity that transcended borders, seeping back into Pakistan’s own Pashtun regions.

Even worse, the Taliban gave ideological and logistical sanctuary to extremist Sunni groups such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Sipah-e-Sahaba, whose sectarian terrorism plunged Pakistan into internal bloodshed. What was meant to be a forward defense became an inward contagion. Instead of exporting jihad, Pakistan imported it.

ISI: A State Within a State

No institution embodies Pakistan’s Afghan misadventure more than the Inter-Services Intelligence. During the Afghan jihad, the ISI evolved from a mere intelligence agency into a parallel state apparatus. Flush with U.S. dollars and Saudi riyals, it acquired unaccountable power and ideological autonomy. Under Zia’s patronage, the ISI fused Islamist zeal with Cold War opportunism, building networks of militants and madrassas that operated outside civilian oversight.

When Zia died in a plane crash in 1988, the ISI had become a monster too large for any civilian government to control. Its Afghan policy splintered into competing fiefdoms, each pursuing its own factional agenda. Many ISI officers, themselves Pashtuns and steeped in jihadist ideology, began to identify more with the Taliban than with Pakistan’s national interest. “These officers became more Taliban than the Taliban,” one ISI veteran admitted to author Ahmed Rashid.

This ideological capture destroyed the agency’s analytical capacity. Strategy gave way to dogma. Instead of recalibrating after 9/11, Pakistan doubled down, playing a duplicitous game of supporting the U.S.-led “War on Terror” while secretly sheltering Taliban elements. The short-term tactical success of keeping Western funds flowing only deepened Pakistan’s long-term strategic disaster.

Talibanization and Internal Collapse

When the Taliban retook Kabul in 2021, Pakistan’s generals once again celebrated, claiming vindication of their decades-long pursuit of “strategic depth.” But within months, the euphoria evaporated. The Taliban refused to recognize the Durand Line, engaged in deadly clashes with Pakistani forces, and allowed the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to operate freely from Afghan soil.

For Islamabad, the nightmare had come full circle. Afghanistan was no longer a buffer; it was a base for Pakistan’s internal enemies. The very militants Pakistan had nurtured now targeted its soldiers, schools, and civilians. The porous frontier became a revolving door for weapons, narcotics, and radical ideology.

The Talibanization of Pakistan is now an undeniable reality. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of Balochistan, local Taliban factions openly challenge state authority. Sectarian groups act with impunity, enforcing their version of Sharia and undermining the rule of law. Public sympathy for hardline Islamists runs deep, thanks to decades of state-sponsored radicalization.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s economy has collapsed under debt and mismanagement, its politics are paralyzed by civil-military tensions, and its once-vaunted army now faces an existential crisis of legitimacy. As inflation soars and governance crumbles, ordinary Pakistanis are left hostage to the chaos their rulers unleashed.

From Failed State to Dying State

Today, Pakistan stands perilously close to implosion, economically bankrupt, politically fractured, and ideologically consumed. The dream of “strategic depth” has degenerated into a nightmare of strategic death.

Far from expanding Pakistan’s influence, Zia’s vision has trapped the country in perpetual instability. To its west lies a hostile Taliban regime; to its east, an assertive India; to its southwest, an alienated Iran; and to its north, a disenchanted China increasingly wary of Pakistan’s internal chaos. Instead of being a regional pivot, Pakistan is now a regional liability.

This collapse is not a sudden accident but the cumulative outcome of decades of hubris. The military’s obsession with controlling Afghanistan, its cynical use of Islam as an instrument of power, and its relentless suppression of civilian politics have hollowed out the Pakistani state. Every attempt to use religious militancy as a tool of strategy has rebounded with deadly force.

As the French scholar Olivier Roy foresaw in 1997, “The de facto absorption of Afghanistan will accentuate centrifugal tendencies within Pakistan.” That centrifugal disintegration is now unfolding before the world’s eyes.

Conclusion: The Death of a Doctrine

The tragedy of Pakistan lies in its refusal to learn. The illusion of strategic depth was built on three fatal assumptions: that Afghanistan could be controlled, that religious extremism could be weaponized without consequence, and that India could be undermined through endless proxy wars. Each of these has proven disastrously false.

Afghanistan remains fiercely independent, its soil now a refuge for anti-Pakistan militants. Islamist extremism has metastasized within Pakistan, eroding the state’s coherence. And India, far from being destabilized, has emerged as a global power while Pakistan sinks deeper into isolation.

General Zia’s doctrine promised security through expansion but delivered insecurity through implosion. In the end, Afghanistan did not become Pakistan’s fortress; it became its graveyard.

The verdict of history is unforgiving: what Pakistan’s generals once hailed as strategic depth has turned out to be strategic death, a slow, self-inflicted unraveling of a nation that mistook fanaticism for foresight and illusion for strategy.

Dr. Prosenjit Nath is a techie, political analyst, and author.

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The post From Strategic Depth To Strategic Death: How Pakistan’s Afghan Gamble Consumed Its Own Soul appeared first on The Commune.

Once seen as a southern benchmark in public education, Tamil Nadu’s learning outcomes have witnessed a steep and worrying decline, according to the PARAKH Rashtriya Sarvekshan 2024.

The survey, conducted in December 2024 by the National Assessment Centre, PARAKH (Performance Assessment, Review and Analysis of Knowledge for Holistic Development), is a nationwide initiative under the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020. Its objective is to assess students in Grades 3, 6, and 9 on competencies in language, mathematics, science, and social sciences across 781 districts in 36 States and UTs.

A total of 2.1 million students from over 74,000 schools participated in the survey, with 2.7 lakh teachers and school leaders also responding to detailed questionnaires. Tamil Nadu saw 1,13,553 students take part in the assessment. However, the state failed to make it into the top 10 for any grade level assessed, trailing below the national average in every major competency evaluated.

The national-level assessment has revealed that Tamil Nadu now trails behind even states traditionally perceived as lagging like Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh (MP) in several core learning and institutional indicators.

The decline is evident across grades, subjects, social groups, and teaching standards.

Tamil Nadu’s Learning Outcomes In Decline

Let’s take a look at the learning outcomes for Tamil Nadu.

Below National Average In All Subjects

Across all three assessed grades, Grade 3 (Foundational), Grade 6 (Preparatory), and Grade 9 (Middle), Tamil Nadu’s average performance was consistently below the national average in every core subject: Language, Mathematics, Science, and Social Science.

In contrast, the “Hindi” belt or BIMARU states such as UP, Bihar, MP, performed better. 

Uttar Pradesh exceeded national averages in foundational numeracy and literacy (Grade 3).

Madhya Pradesh scored above or equal to the national average in Mathematics in Grades 6 and 9.

Bihar showed growth in Language and Science scores, narrowing the gap significantly with southern counterparts.

District-Level Underperformance

None of Tamil Nadu’s districts featured among the top 50 districts nationally in any grade. However, multiple TN districts were among the bottom 50:

• Grade 3 Low Performers: Ranipet, Ramanathapuram
• Grade 6 Low Performers: Tirupathur, Vellore, Ramanathapuram
• Grade 9 Low Performers: Cuddalore, Tirupathur, Tiruvannamalai, Nagapattinam, Ariyalur

States like Punjab, Kerala, and even Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh had multiple entries in the top-performing districts list.

National Comparison And High Performers

The top-performing states offer a stark contrast:

• Grade 3: Punjab led across both language and mathematics.
• Grade 6: Kerala emerged as the top performer.
• Grade 9: Punjab again topped the charts.

Among government schools specifically:

• Language proficiency (Grade 3): Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra stood out.
• Mathematics proficiency (Grade 3): Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, and Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu were top performers.

Here are some national averages:

Assessing Preparatory Stage Competencies (Grade 6)

Assessing Middle Stage Competencies (Grade 9)

Structural Weaknesses and Systemic Gaps

Let us now take a look at the foundational weaknesses and gaps.

Foundational Competency Deficits

Less than 50% of Tamil Nadu’s Grade 3 students could perform basic reading or numeracy tasks, indicating deep-rooted foundational gaps.

In contrast, UP and MP students demonstrated better foundational competency with more than 60% proficiency in several indicators.

Declining Performance by Grade 9

Tamil Nadu’s students showed steep learning attrition by Grade 9:

• Math competency scores dropped to ~33–37%
• Science understanding was limited to 36–38%
• Social Science and Civics averaged below 40%, pointing to weak conceptual comprehension

These metrics indicate a failure to transition from rote learning to conceptual application.

Teacher Preparedness and Pedagogy

Only 25% of teachers in Tamil Nadu underwent professional development in the last year among the lowest in India.

Less than 50% of teachers used toy-based learning or project-based assessment, lagging behind even northern states that have adopted NEP 2020-aligned practices.

ICT-based training participation was also below par compared to Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, which invested in EdTech post-COVID.

Inclusion, Well-Being, and Infrastructure Concerns

Let’s take a look at some of the other problematic areas.

CWSN Neglect

Only 28% of schools in Tamil Nadu had appropriate learning materials for Children With Special Needs. Assistive technologies were available in just 17% of schools.

Mental Health and SEL Deficits

17–25% of TN students reported feeling unsafe or anxious in school.

Low availability of counsellors, anti-bullying policies, and SEL practices worsens the learning environment.

Manodarpan, the national SEL initiative, remains poorly implemented in TN.

Digital and Skill Education Gap

Only 38% of students had access to a tablet/laptop at home.

Only 29% of Grade 9 students had enrolled in skill-based education, despite the state’s push for industry-linked education.

Let’s now take a look at how TN compares to a few peers such as UP, Bihar, and MP.

Tamil Nadu’s ideological resistance to NEP 2020 has arguably cost it crucial learning reforms. States like UP, MP, and Bihar, which have aligned their pedagogy, teacher training, and assessment with NEP’s competency-based framework, are now reaping benefits, as reflected in the PARAKH survey.

Even Kerala, while critical of some NEP aspects, adopted assessment reforms and SEL integration faster than Tamil Nadu.

Consistent Underperformance Pattern

Tamil Nadu’s underperformance follows a pattern observed in the previous National Achievement Survey (NAS). In response, the DMK-led government launched initiatives such as the #EnnumEzhuthum scheme to address foundational literacy and numeracy gaps. However, the recent PARAKH results suggest that these interventions have yet to produce meaningful outcomes.

Critics have pointed to the Dravidian Model’s politicisation of NEP 2020, arguing that opposition to the central education policy has come at the cost of addressing core learning outcomes. Commentators have also drawn parallels to the #NaanMudhalvan scheme, launched to boost skill development and placements for youth, which has similarly been criticised for lacklustre training and poor placement results.

Some Recommendations for Tamil Nadu

1. Statewide Foundational Literacy Mission: Target Grades 1–5 with accelerated learning modules and diagnostic tools.
2. Mandate Annual Teacher Training: Focus on digital tools, NEP-compliant pedagogy, and inclusive classroom management.
3. District-Level Action Plans: Decentralize data-driven planning with accountability to improve district outcomes.
4. Invest in SEL and Mental Health: Recruit trained counsellors, implement Manodarpan fully, and integrate SEL in pedagogy.
5. Rebuild Public Trust in Education: Launch a “Back to Basics” campaign to refocus on core competencies and teacher-led reform.
6. Adopt Competency-Based Assessments: Move away from rote learning models toward outcome-based frameworks as per NEP.

The findings from PARAKH 2024 deliver a wake-up call for Tamil Nadu. While its education model has historically emphasized access and inclusion, access without learning is no longer tenable. Without urgent systemic reforms and a reorientation toward competency-based, inclusive, and data-driven education, Tamil Nadu risks falling behind not just in national rankings but in securing the future of its students.

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The post Dravidian Model Of Education Fails: Tamil Nadu Falls Behind UP, Bihar, And MP In PARAKH 2024 Learning Outcomes Survey, Below National Avg In All Subjects appeared first on The Commune.

In what is being called one of the deadliest and most mysterious aviation disasters in India’s history, Air India Flight 117, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, killing nearly everyone on board.

The Official Cause: Fuel Cutoffs

The AAIB ruled out sabotage, bird strike, and fuel contamination but did not dismiss any possibilities pending complete analysis

According to the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), both engine fuel cutoff switches unexpectedly shifted from RUN to CUTOFF in less than one second, leading to a sudden loss of thrust. Pilots tried to restart engines but were too low to recover before the plane crashed near the airport perimeter, killing 241 onboard and at least 19 on the ground—only one person survived.

A Ram Air Turbine (RAT)—the emergency power backup—was deployed just after takeoff, indicating total engine failure. CCTV confirmed its deployment within seconds of liftoff.

Following takeoff, the aircraft reached its highest indicated airspeed of 180 knots around 08:08:42 UTC. Just moments later, the fuel cutoff switches for both engines—Engine 1 and Engine 2—shifted from the RUN position to CUTOFF in quick succession, with only a one-second gap between the two. As a result, both engines’ N1 and N2 readings began to decline, indicating that fuel flow to the engines had been interrupted.

Cockpit voice recordings reveal one pilot asking, “Why did you cut off?”, with the other replying, “I did not do so.”

Aviation consultants note that fuel cutoff switches have metal locking mechanisms and guarded brackets—making accidental trigger extremely unlikely

Then how did it happen?

Boeing’s Remote-Control Patent

Boeing was awarded a patent in 2006 for technology that allows remote overriding of a vehicle’s onboard controls—including aircraft—in case the security of cockpit controls is compromised.

The patent describes an automated control system that can be activated remotely, disabling pilot control by bypassing accessible power elements via an alternative, inaccessible control element—which conspiracy theorists equate with the RAT.

Instantly after RAT deployment: Engine fuel cutoffs occurred, followed by catastrophic stall.

The timeline mirrors the Boeing patent’s architecture: remote engagement → disable onboard controls → switch to emergency power → crash.

The precise one-second interval and pilot surprise feed speculation about skilled remote intervention.

CIA Hitting Back At India For Baking Nukes At Kirana Hills?

Open-source intelligence and credible defense watchers suggest that the Indian Air Force (IAF) may have conducted a precision strike on Pakistan’s sensitive nuclear storage facility in the Kirana Hills region, adjacent to the highly fortified Sargodha Airbase.

According to multiple sources, the strike reportedly penetrated deep into the rocky subterranean structure—allegedly causing partial collapse of tunnels and potentially compromising stored nuclear warheads. Some reports even hint at low-level radiation leakage, though officially denied.

What makes this incident even more significant is the belief that the Kirana Hills facility may also house nuclear assets tied to U.S. strategic cooperation with Pakistan—a claim neither confirmed nor denied by Washington.

If India indeed struck a site connected to American nuclear infrastructure, it would represent an unprecedented breach and a serious embarrassment for the United States—especially the CIA—which failed to anticipate India’s bold escalation.

This, many argue, could explain why the CIA may have sought swift retaliation through an untraceable covert message—one that would be loud enough for Delhi to hear, but quiet enough to deny.

Notably, former Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani was aboard Air India Flight 117, which crashed under mysterious circumstances. The presence of a VVIP onboard raises serious questions: Was this flight specifically targeted as a warning?

Adding to the intrigue, Western media swiftly pinned the blame on the pilots—even before preliminary emergency protocols had been completed. The speed and certainty of the narrative triggered suspicions of a coordinated cover-up, possibly engineered to distract from the larger geopolitical implications..

When Malaysia Blamed CIA For MH370

Former Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad speculated that Boeing’s remote control system might have been used to hijack or disable Flight MH370, noting:

“Clearly Boeing and certain agencies have the capacity to take over ‘uninterruptible control’ of commercial airliners… someone is hiding something.”

Like Flight 117, MH370 involved a Boeing aircraft, unexplained loss of communication, and missing evidence—fostering a similar control-over-airplanes theory.

India Must Not Give Benefit Of Doubt

India’s final AAIB report is due within a year. It may clarify whether manual intervention, mechanical failure, or software error triggered the cutoffs.

Independent probes and third‑party experts must assess whether Boeing’s remote override patent was ever integrated into real aircraft systems.

Without conclusive proof, the CIA sabotage theory remains speculative. Yet the sequence of events—cutoff switches, emergency RAT activation, cockpit confusion—paired with Boeing’s remote-control patent—it fits too neatly to ignore.

(With inputs from Vijay Patel’s X Thread)

Was the Air India Flight 117 crash a SABOTAGE by the CIA(USA)?

1. Read these chilling details to understand how it is possible to take control of a civilian airplane.

Boeing holds the patent to remotely take control of any vehicles, including airplanes.

ExclusiveThread pic.twitter.com/nEiDdIq83R

— Vijay Patel (@vijaygajera) July 12, 2025

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The post Was The CIA Controlling The Cockpit? Boeing’s Secret Tech And The Ahmedabad Plane Crash appeared first on The Commune.

Prithviraj Sukumaran isn’t just an actor, producer, and director—he’s a self-anointed crusader for the leftist elite, wielding cinema as a weapon to smear Hindus, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Born into a film family in Kerala, Prithviraj has built a career on privilege while posturing as a champion of downtrodden. His collaborator, screenwriter Murali Gopy, openly admits to an “anti-right” stance while criticizing the mainstream Left for not being pure enough, as noted in a 2023 Indian Express interview. Gopy’s influence is evident in Prithviraj’s projects, which drip with disdain for Hindu nationalism and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of a united India. From his social media virtue-signalling to his filmography, Prithviraj peddles a worldview that romanticizes Kerala’s red-draped politics, cajoles the Islamists, vilifying anyone who dares to embrace Hindu pride or support the BJP. He’s not a filmmaker—he’s a propagandist with a camera, and through his works – Empuraan and Jana Gana Mana – he is waging an ideological/political warfare against Hindus who are vocal and support Prime Minister Modi.

Dissecting Empuraan: A Cinematic Hit Job On Hindus And BJP That Shows A PM Modi Look Alike Getting Killed By Foreign Agents 

Empuraan, released on March 27, 2025, and co-starring Mohanlal, is Prithviraj’s most brazen assault yet on Hindus, the BJP, and Modi. The film opens with a disclaimer—“All scenes and characters depicted are fictional”—but what unfolds is a calculated distortion of history, starting with a village burning in 2002, a clear reference to the Godhra riots. That real event saw a Muslim mob burn a train, killing 59 Hindu pilgrims, sparking riots. Like a typical leftist dimwit, Prithviraj erases the initial attack, showing only Hindu mobs as aggressors—beating a Muslim boy to death, attacking Muslim refugees, and raping a pregnant Muslim woman in a Hindu household.

On the other hand, the Sabarmati Express carnage “accidentally” catches fire from inside which the Gujarati Hindu communal party leader Bajrang Patel, uses it as an opportunity to kill Muslims and grab power. A Muslim boy (Prithviraj) escapes from there and takes revenge on the Hindu leader who, by now, has become a national leader of ruling Hindu party.

The propaganda intensifies with the Hindu mob leader named “Bajrang,” a blatant nod to Bajrang Dal, a Hindu rights group tied to the RSS. He later becomes the national leader of the Hindu party and is portrayed as someone close to the Home Minister.

And then you’ve Jathin “Ram” Das, a sitting CM who joins hands with the pro-Hindu party at the Centre. In real-life, it translates to the Centre engineering a split in Congress to bring a Hindu party to power in Kerala.

The film frames this merger as a betrayal of Kerala’s culture, a divisive message rooted in the state’s history of “secular” pandering of the Islamists by the Communists. A villain resembling Narendra Modi spouts baseless claims about Kerala’s “600 km coastline” being used for drug smuggling, while a reference to a bomb on a dam—read: Mullaiperiyar—stokes fear with reckless sensationalism. What Prithviraj is implying is there’s a conspiracy being hatched by the Hindu “fanatic party” to explode a major dam and kill millions.

The climax is a chilling fantasy: “Bajrang” is defeated by a Christian “Lucifer” (Mohanlal) and a Muslim “Zayed” (Prithviraj), a non-Hindu alliance defeating the Hindu leader “Ramdas” who is then killed by a Chinese mafia. Is Prithviraj’s fetishing that Narendra Modi be killed by Chinese agents and foreign forces?

Throughout the film, agents of the ‘Deep State’ and foreign forces are shown in good light. A British intelligence agent aids Lucifer, hinting at a “deep state” plot while a “Christian NATO” targets Hindus for supporting pro-Hindu parties.

Muslims are portrayed as “innocent,” like Zayed saving girls from trafficking, despite NCRB data showing Muslims, 14% of India’s population, made up 19% of prisoners in 2022—a statistic often debated in discussions of crime and communal bias.

Meanwhile, a character in a tricolour saree—symbolizing the Congress—gives a speech on democracy only to be arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), a dig at real-world ED raids. It is another matter that the commie Prithviraj has shown the Congress too in bad light once again hammering that he’s a two-bit propagandist of the hammer-sickle party.

Cinematically, Empuraan is a disaster. Poorly edited, technically weak, and stretched beyond reason, its camera work is a mess, with random angles that add nothing. The hyped “OTT-quality shot” Prithviraj bragged about is nowhere to be seen—unless he meant the third-rate visuals that dominate the film. Mohanlal is sidelined, while Prithviraj’s Zayed hogs the spotlight, turning a supposed epic into a soapbox for ideological score-settling.

#Empuraan : Propaganda at its Best

A brilliantly made high budget action entertainer to vilify Hindus for their political leaning SPOILERS AHEAD

P.S : Pics for this thread are taken from free internet portals#EmpuraanReview pic.twitter.com/b8NT7WwFB6

— Revenge mode (@Pora_Babu) March 27, 2025

Jana Gana Mana: A Masterclass In Hypocrisy And Anti-Hindu Bias

Prithviraj’s 2022 film Jana Gana Mana is another chapter in his anti-Hindu, anti-BJP crusade, cloaked as a socio-political thriller. The film claims to oppose discrimination, with a scene criticizing a textbook for injecting “the politics of color into the mind of a six-year-old.” Yet it casts a fair-skinned Prithviraj as the virtuous hero fighting for the “oppressed,” while the villain, a dark-skinned Tamil-speaking politician named Nageswara Rao, is steeped in Hindu religious symbols and heads the RJSP party—sporting saffron and RSS-ish flags, a clear jab at the BJP. Rao is the prime accused in the “Ramanagara Riots,” a fictional event that mirrors real-world communal tensions often blamed on the BJP by its critics.

The film’s villains are tellingly named—Raghuram Iyer (advocate representing the State), Shwetha Gupta (Chairperson of National Commission for Women), and a casteist professor, Vydarshan—surnames that scream “upper-caste Hindu identity”, while a “good” PhD guide, “Hamid sir”, is Muslim.

A student’s thesis on the “perpetuation of caste system in 21st century India” ends in her suicide, with the blame pinned on a “Central” university whose director, resembling Modi, ignores enquiry reports—a thinly veiled attack on the PM.

Every “good” character is either Muslim or a non-practicing Hindu, while “bad” characters flaunt Hindu symbols or symbols/colours associated with the RSS and BJP.

Real-world issues like demonetization (called “banning notes”) to fearmonger about the BJP “banning votes,” a baseless scare tactic aimed at Modi’s governance.

The film accuses politicians of using emotions to turn people into “bhakts,” a term weaponized by the left to mock Modi’s supporters, while ironically manipulating its audience with the same emotional tactics it decries.

The film is a masterclass on hypocrisy. It rails against “identity politics” but indulges in it shamelessly, portraying practicing Hindus as villains and Muslims as victims—a trope that fuels division while pretending to preach unity.

One of the most engaging but dishonest film is Jana Gana Mana, from Commiewood.

Infact the movie clearly states its political ideology and bigotry very clearly, including its emotional manipulation technique.

But alas, we were hooked to cinema and missed it all.

A thread. pic.twitter.com/VOVWBAui9B

— Tamil Labs 2.0 (@labstamil) April 6, 2024

Not Just In Reel, Prithviraj Peddles Anti-Development Propaganda In Real As Well Like A True-Red Communist

Propagandist Prithviraj: A Fraud Masquerading As A Filmmaker

Prithviraj Sukumaran is two-bit commie fraud, peddling divisive fantasies that vilify Hindus, the BJP, and Modi while raking in crores from a starstruck audience. Empuraan and Jana Gana Mana aren’t films—they’re hit jobs on faith, plurality, and India’s cultural soul, part of a Malayalam cinema nexus including Kuruthi and The Great Indian Kitchen that peddles anti-Hindu bile under the guise of “progressive” art. His privilege as a film-family scion fuels this hypocrisy—he’s no underdog, just a pampered propagandist cashing in on division while cloaking his attacks in “fiction.” The BJP, which has lifted India from socialist mire, and Narendra Modi, a leader of grit, don’t need lectures from this smug hack. It’s time we stopped clapping for his trash and called him what he is: a sanctimonious peddler of hate, unworthy of the screen he pollutes.

Vallavaraayan is a political writer. 

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The post Meet Prithviraj Sukumaran, The Two-Bit Virtue-Signalling Commie Propagandist Who Peddles Hate Against Hindus, BJP, And PM Modi Through His Films appeared first on The Commune.

Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) held its first-ever state level conference on 27 October 2024 at V. Salai near Vikravandi in Vizhuppuram district where the actor-turned-politician expanded on his party’s ideologies and fixed his political opponents.

The crowd was far larger than anticipated, and Vijay’s speech surpassed expectations. For many hearing Vijay’s political voice for the first time, it was striking. Although it did feel a little amateurish, with many taking jibes at his speech as ‘deleted scenes from Sarkar’, he did press the right buttons with his extempore delivery.

Vijay’s stance seems directed at both the BJP-led central government and the DMK-led Tamil Nadu government. However, his primary political adversary appears to be the DMK, as he positions himself as a key player rooted in and representing Tamil Nadu.

But we must remember that part-time politician and former Bigg Boss host Kamal Haasan also started on a similar footing like Vijay, with dialogues aimed at the DMK and torches thrown at them. And we know how that ended. Only time will tell if Vijay will end up like Kamal. For now, we should appreciate the fact that he didn’t back off like Rajini.

The Vijayakanth Model

Vijay made his debut in cinema as a child actor in the film ‘Vettri’ directed by his father which had Vijayakanth play the lead role. Now, years later, it’s both nostalgic and symbolic that Vijay has made his political debut under the banner of Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam.

Actor Vijayakanth entered the film industry in the early 1980s and, over time, organized fan clubs across Tamil Nadu. Members of these clubs participated in the 2001 local body elections, gaining valuable experience in election management and grassroots networking. This foundation proved beneficial when Vijayakanth’s party, DMDK, contested the 2006 Assembly elections.

Vijay has adopted a similar strategy by transforming his fan clubs into the foundational framework of his political party. He silently tested waters in the 2021 rural local body elections, where his fan club members succeeded in securing 115 out of the 169 seats they contested by just flashing Vijay’s face and name.

If Vijayakanth’s DMDK had the word (Desiya) “nationalistic” in his party name, Vijay has added the nationalistic flavour by upholding Karmaveerar Kamaraj and making him as one of the guiding forces of the party.

Vijayakanth had a strong connect with the rural masses and Vijay too has a strong presence thanks to his filmdom and the reach of his fan clubs. Go to a random village or town in Tamil Nadu and you’ll see a flex of Vijay Rasigar Mandram with mugshots of young chaps of that locality. Till date, members of the fan clubs and their family might have voted for a DMK, ADMK, PMK or VCK. But today, they’ve their own party to canvass for and vote. Only a superficial political commentator will take these fan clubs lightly.

Vijay is just going by the playbook of Vijayakanth. As of today, he has the potential to emerge as another Vijayakanth. But Vijayakanth was of a different mettle. He was a tough political player who kept even Jayalalithaa on her toes and never yielded to enticements and pressures from the DMK despite the latter razing down his marriage hall, something that was close to his heart. Will Vijay be able to handle the pressure from DMK? We’ve to wait and watch.

Ideology And Policies: Stale And Unoriginal

‘Secular Social Justice Ideologies’ – that’s the position of Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, which makes it another Dravidian party in the Tamil Nadu political landscape. And it is very much similar to what the DMDK had professed. DMDK too embraced Dravidianism, secularism, social justice, and populism. By taking such a position Vijay will be fighting for the same votebank as of other Dravidian parties.

Atleast Vijayakanth had the guts and the gumption to have this as his party principle – “Save Mother Tamil and Learn All Languages”. It is disappointing to see Vijay aping the DMK, ADMK, MDMK and other Dravidianist parties on the issue of language. However, Vijay has been smart enough to accept that ideologies and policies are subject to change in accordance with time and circumstances.

From abolishing the Governor’s post to opposing NEET, resisting Hindi, and advocating for a two-language policy—it’s the same old stuck Dravidian tape recorder playing on repeat.

This makes Vijay look like an unintelligent Dravidian Stock because if he holds Dr. Ambedkar as the guiding light of his party then it is meaningless and quite oxymoronic to call for abolishing Governor post and taking anti-Hindi position because they are very much against the Constitution.

One good thing that Vijay has been pragmatic about is cancelling EVR’s anti-Hindu ideology. For the kind attention of Sanghis, even BJP Tamil Nadu leader K. Annamalai had taken the same stance of Vijay with respect to EVR saying that the BJP opposes only EVR’s anti-Hindu views while recognizing him as a reformer relevant to his time, who fought against discrimination and for women’s rights.

On closer look, TVK resembles the early AIADMK in spirit—a genuinely “secular” Dravidian party that avoids antagonizing any religion or community, unlike the DMK which espouses a virulent anti-Hindu ideology.

Vijay, while formulating his political ideology must’ve thought of it to be like a ‘Jigarthanda’ which would entice people across the spectrum. Like how Badam Pisin is the the main and a crucial ingredient in Jigarthanda, Dravidam is the crucial base for TVK. On top of that you add the Nannari syrup of nationalism, condensed cold milk of casteism, a dash of Dalitism, topped with Tamil Nationalism ice cream and garnished with fruity feminism. Voila! Vijay’s Jigarthanda is ready to be served. But the fancy for Jigarthanda doesn’t last long.

The disadvantage for Vijay is that like NTK, the TVK is also an individual-based and individual-centric party. The vote that that TVK party gets is not for its ideology but for Brand Vijay. Once the central figure of the party is gone, its potency will wane. How Vijay’s TVK will manage to keep his party intact for years to come after 2026 will remain to be seen.

Vijay’s TVK Will Cause Max Damage To Whom?

Since Vijay has sounded his political ‘bigil‘ fixing DMK as his primary political opponent, it can be said that he’s aiming to sway the voters of ADMK to his side. But will it be the most affected party? Not actually.

The most affected party would be Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi. It is not without any reason that Seeman quickly called Vijay’s ideology as the polar opposite of NTK. While NTK opposes Dravidianism, Vijay equates Dravidianism and Tamil Nationalism as his two eyes. NTK is an ideologically stronger option for those wanting a non-Dravidian alternative and has a proven electoral track record. But Vijay’s charisma overshadows Seeman. Voters of NTK are mostly floating voters who are disillusioned with the major players. For them, a Vijay’s TVK is as good as Seeman’s NTK. Seeman seems to have sensed that his potential voters could now end up in Vijay’s pocket. Also, the reach of Vijay among first-time voters, especially in rural Tamil Nadu, particularly women, has the potential to spoil NTK’s rise. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if Seeman doubles down his attack on Vijay.

The next affected party would be Thol. Thirumavalavan’s VCK. Vijay has a considerable following among Dalit youth. One can see Vijay fan clubs in many of the Dalit localities and given his Christian faith, minorities will now see TVK as an option.

The ADMK, though has a experienced player who has risen from the grassroots at the helm, he lacks the glamour and charisma that Vijay has. With Vijay positioning himself as an anti-DMK force and if he goes hammer and tongs against the DMK in the coming days, he’ll sway voters who would’ve otherwise voted for ADMK. If he pulls anti-DMK votes, it might fracture the DMK bloc and weaken the ADMK’s position in elections against the DMK.

Vijay’s messaging around social justice, anti-corruption, and welfare may resonate with voters who embrace the Dravidian ideology. Many young voters in urban and semi-urban areas who have been loyal to the DMK might find a new option in TVK, particularly if they see Vijay as a refreshing alternative to Udhayanidhi’s DMK.  With anti-incumbency already setting in due to misgovernance, unmet promises, and local issues, disillusioned supporters might look for alternatives. Vijay, perceived as an outsider with a clean reputation, could attract these voters.

The BJP in Tamil Nadu is likely to feel the least effect from Vijay’s political entry as there is no overlap of ideology or possible voters. So, the BJP should see an ally in Vijay and not an enemy for now. Going by the tone and tenor Vijay’s speech, he has not made BJP a political taboo and has the doors open for a potential alliance. Unless Vijay attacks the BJP heavily targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP should not expend its energy on attacking TVK. To put it in the words of Vijay – Decent Appoach, Decent Attack – should also be the BJP’s strategy towards TVK.

Historically, DMK and AIADMK alliances have secured over 80% of Tamil Nadu’s votes, pushing third-party options to the margins. However, in the 2024 elections, their combined share fell below 70%, even dipping under 50% without alliances. This drop is what inspired BJP to carve its own path in the state under Annamalai’s leadership.

The DMK’s influence in Tamil Nadu remains robust, with the party leading a strong alliance that has seen repeated victories. Currently, opposition forces — including AIADMK, BJP (NDA), Naam Tamilar, and now Vijay — are fragmented in their approach against the DMK coalition. This landscape suggests a potential five-way contest for the 2026 elections: DMK alliance, AIADMK, BJP (NDA), Naam Tamilar, and Vijay’s TVK.  So unless the DMK alliance splits, Vijay’s entry will only make it easier for DMK to win.

Vijay who is electorally yet to prove himself wants others to rally behind him in case of an alliance. He should understand that realpolitik doesn’t work that way. If DMK is to be defeated, a strong alliance is required. As of today, Vijay has the option of allying with only AIADMK and Puthiya Tamilagam (which is in ADMK alliance). If VCK decides to ditch DMK and join with AIADMK+, then Vijay can play second fiddle to Edappadi Palaniswami, taking cue from Andhra politics. It took Pawan Kalyan a decade of political work to be where he is today. Vijay can’t expect to become a Pawan Kalyan in just over an year.

For 2026, a 4-way (if ADMK aligns with TVK) or 5-way contest could significantly benefit non-DMK+ contenders, provided TVK dent the DMK+ vote bank. A 3-way race, however, would likely pave the way for another DMK victory.

Kaushik is a political writer. 

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The post Honest Review of Vijay’s TVK: A Glossier ADMK With DMK Roots – Which Party Should Worry More? appeared first on The Commune.

It all started on April 17 (T-2), when Dr Tamilisai’s husband Dr. Soundararajan visited our apartment and one of her team members remarked that they need to find a “booth agent” for our booth at Saligramam that had voters from my apartment and few other apartments. One of the fellow residents (he was formerly a District level functionary of BJP at Namakkal) asked me, if I am game and I accepted with no idea of what it entails. He also said that the team will train me and I can go to the booth by around 9 am and be there till around 6:30-7:00 PM. Sounded like a regular day job (be there before NSE opens and be out after EOD processes and reconciliations by 6:00 PM).

The next day I was given the details of a functionary and was asked to reach out. As I do usually, I sent a WhatsApp message asking when should I call. No response from him. The post markets on Thursday called him to check and he shared the office location. When I went there, him and his team was sweating it out getting kits ready for the entire Assembly Segment. Handed over my photo etc., for them to prepare my credentials and went back at 11 pm to collect the kit, that was supposed to contain a part seal to affix on laquer, a writing pad, a notepad, writing instruments, a numbering sheet and the voter list.

In hindsight I should have checked the kit for its contents. Every booth were assigned two volunteers to relieve each other and alternate during the polls. My fellow volunteer at the booth had taken with him the voter list. The folks at the office were quite pressed for time and briefly explained my role and repeated a few times to collect the summary form (17Cin original. They were racing against time to find volunteers to some booths. Being the first timer it was overwhelming and I went in as I went into my Heat and Mass Transfer exam in 1997 (I aced it with 95%). Assumed everything would be there and came back and slept well. My biggest fear was that I will over sleep!

Now to the D day!

The alarm rang at 500. Snoozed the alarm and woke up at 530. Reached my assigned booth at 550. There were 5 booths in the polling station. The officers had already set up the EVM. Battery driven. Handed over my credentials and took up a seat. There were 6 other polling agents. 1 each for ADMK and DMK and 4 representing Independent candidates. My presence did surprise some of them. I was quite surprised that there were agents representing Independent and was asking myself how they managed to get 1600+ poll agents (answer to this later).

There was a mock poll to check EVM and it was tested, cleared and made ready for real polls. Just in time at 7:00 AM. The next 11 hours was exciting.

Voters were already queued up. The officers and agents were ready. There was delay of 20-30 secs to open. A senior gentlemen who was second in the queue, probably a retired person from Mumbai that was used to traveling by the Churchgate – Andheri 6:59 fast local became restless at 7:00.

Polling was brisk and fast. Our booth had the longest queue in the station. Looking at the nos and the pace, think the peak capacity is around 90-100 votes / hour / EVM, while Time & motion study may suggest a bit higher. It takes around 25-30 secs for recording a vote, from the Polling officer clearing you to vote to him clearing the next person. Cannot stuff 1000 ballots in 1 hour as in the past! Now you know the reason for the clamour of physical ballots.

At 8:30 AM, the fellow polling agents asked around for breakfast and one of the agents went out and got the food for everyone. Usually my first meal is at around 1 pm (intermittent fasting), hence did not have breakfast. And around 930 or so, the BJP candidate visited the booth to check if everything was in order. By 12 noon, the crowds started thinning down. Asked one of the fellow agents on how much they expect. His answer was – it was around 40-45% in 2021.

Post noon, the activity levels dropped further and the agents asked around on who wants what for lunch. One of the senior citizen volunteer from Tamil Nadu BJP came in to check and got me curd rice for lunch! Curd rice never felt this yummy! It was 2 pm and it became silent! By now, everyone was relaxed and were checking for trends in the other booths within the station. Ours was the highest – both in numbers and percentage (more on this later). One of the agents went out to vote at her polling station and came back to say the turnout at her booth was abysmal and people were just lazing around!

During the day, there was tea, nannari sarbath, butter milk (twice) and then a coffee at 4 pm – for everyone. The initial tension gave way to a friendly banter and they were pulling each other’s legs (Akka – Anna – Thambi etc). All of us started talking. Then I realized that all the agents live almost in the same street and they knew each other very well. Each of them were doing different tasks and they seem to work in groups tacitly (more on this later). One was marking Male / Female, one of them just ticking off names in booklet. They had different formats with carbon copies and it was brilliant. The formats were tearable booklets (Serial Number; Slip number, Male/ Female). They were quite fine sharing the formats.

Every hour or so, a Lead agent (more about him later) comes around to collect the tearble sheets and check the voting trend. While the main copy goes to the central data centre of the party, the carbon copy goes to the team waiting outside the station, where a second team checks the list to see, if there is some one that is “expected” to vote has not turned up. Apparently, he passes that info to someone in the locality to mobilise voters that have not turned up yet. This is in essence the election day machinery that works like a precision m/c. Looking at the numbers – 2 agents per booth makes it 10 agents per station (assuming 5 booths) + tacit coop with independents + party workers outside polling station on either side of road. So say around 25-30 per station per party. If you have 400 polling stations, it means around 10000-12000 or even more workers on polling day alone for a single major party in a single parliamentary constituency to cover 20 lakh voters.

This is the machinery that needs to be replicated! In a state that has 50% swing voters, you need this to push the voters to the booth! Back to the “Lead Agent” – He is a seasoned pro and had seen elections for 25-30 years and had stories from a 1990 elections when the booth had a repoll!. He is the most important person for a party inside the polling station – someone the rookie agent looks upto when there is an issue inside the booth. On the agent of independent candidates, maybe they may not be really independent candidates. If you are new party in the race, you have limited personnel, here is a #jugaad model. A constituency with ~20l voters in 6 assembly segments has approximately around 300-350 polling stations, with each station having around 5-6 booths for a total of around ~1600+/- booths. [I have no idea on the actuals]

You do not need 10000, you can do it with 4000 and mobile phones to find a voter’s booth & serial number. But they need to work a couple days longer. Sheer presence outside a polling station will comfort your supporter. While it will be nice to have the agents know the voters, it may not be required as I learnt a trick or two from the experienced pros. When the Polling Officer calls out a serial number and name, the “pro agent” calls out the name from the list at a random moment. If the voter does not respond to the name – it’s a red flag. Street smart!

A booth agent has the right to question the identity of the voter. One of the other party agents asked me “Enna sir ungala kandukkavae maatendraanga” [No one is taking care of you]. Now that’s a psy-war that can put one down! With me being an unknown person to the party folks and a last minute #upma agent, no one except folks from my apartment spoke to me (and I could not identify the party folks given that I parachuted in T-2, a morning huddle with fellow booth agents could have helped). So if you are a rookie agent, ensure you meet up the other volunteers before the polling starts in the morning.

While BJPs marketing, leadership of Shri Narendra Modi and charisma and aggression of Shri Annamalai has created the product and branding, election day management will be the equivalent of Sales & Distribution, the last mile connect to the voter to get them to vote. The difference between BJP outside Tamil Nadu and in Tamil Nadu is the last mile connect to voter. I hope Phase II for Annamalai is creating this connect! Build or Acquire the last mile connect. The grassroot volunteers were available post Jayalalithaa’s period looking for a leader and EPS has consolidated his hold over the party human resources between 2017 – 2021.

Now an electoral loss to EPS in 2024 will make that available in pockets and BJP should not hesitate to induct last mile functionaries (the Distributor/ Departmental store equivalent of FMCG). 2026 is going to be tougher as its not a vote for Modi, but will be a call for double-engine government in Tamil Nadu! When the polling ended – the head agent’s body language was not too great or he is a good poker player!

The way I see the turnout – while there is no big change in the numbers over 2019, the booth level data may tell you a different story. Candidates have that data and their body language will tell you!

Some notes for polling agents in future:

1. While its good to use tech and printers, nothing beats the muscle memory of writing it down. Write the name and s. no by hand in a booth slip. When the voter walks in – you may remember faster and better.

2. Ensure the booth slip has the image of the EVM unit with the name and Serial Number of the candidate. A few seniors struggled to locate! 3. Meet the fellow polling agents in the AM before the process starts

End of the day, the officials displayed the total votes, sealed with laquer and affixed the official seal, handed over the summary form. I submitted the form at the party office – took a few pens as souvenir and walked back home with a unique experience. When I reached home, my wife had a long list of things to do that I have been putting off citing lack of time due to work – If you can take out 15 hours on a Friday (NSE was open), you should have time to do this list too!

(This article is based on Vijayanand’s X post on the same)

Vijayanand Venkataraman is a Chartered Financial Analyst.

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The post A Hedge Fund Manager Becomes A BJP Booth Agent In Chennai For A Day, Here’s What He Finds appeared first on The Commune.

June 4th 2024 might be a turning point in the post-independence political history of Tamil Nadu. The state of Tamil Nadu goes for Lok Sabha polls to send 39 Members of Parliament on April 19th 2024, the results of which will be published on June 4th 2024. The state is known for giving massive one-sided mandates as it did in 1977,80,84,89,91,96,2004,2014 and 2019. The state had delivered a split verdict only thrice ie 1998,99 and 2009 giving a respectable number of seats to the runners-up. The winner had taken home almost all the seats leaving nothing for the runners-up in the one sided verdicts.

What makes this election unique is the fact that a strong third front ie NDA comprising of BJP, PMK, OPS, AMMK, TMC and several other smaller parties has emerged and fielded candidates in all 39 Lok Sabha constituencies.

A similar experiment was carried out in 2014 Lok Sabha elections when NDA comprising of BJP,PMK,MDMK,DMDK and few smaller parties polled nearly 19% votes and won 2 seats withstanding the ADMK Tsunami which fetched ADMK 37 seats with around 45% votes. The DMK alliance polled around 26% votes but could not win a seat then.

With the break up of ADMK-BJP alliance a few months back, one can be sure about the fact that DMK is sitting pretty like ADMK was in 2014 and the alliance led by it could end up winning a lion’s share of seats this time as well despite widespread anti-incumbency against the incumbent DMK state govt in TN. DMK alliance polled 53% votes in 2019 LS polls but could poll only 45% in the assembly elections held in 2021. NDA which polled 30% in 2019 boosted its vote share to 39% in 2021 assembly elections. Given the fact that there is no anti-Modi wave now and there is widespread anti-incumbency now against the Stalin Govt, the author of this piece infers from the ground that DMK alliance will lose anywhere between 6 to 8% in vote share from 2021. DMK alliance as per my estimate is unlikely to cross the 40% mark this time around. It could poll anywhere between 37 to 39% this time.

If ADMK-BJP were united now, they could have reaped the benefit of this swing against DMK and boosted their vote share to more than 45% from 39% in 2021 and won a majority of the seats like they won in 1998. But that is not the case now. However, what would be interesting is how NDA and ADMK are going to fare and share this 45% plus anti-DMK votes among themselves. The way this 45% or more is going to be shared is going to determine the future dynamics of TN politics. Let’s explore the various scenarios that is likely to play out.

Scenario 1: ADMK polling about 30% and NDA gathering 15% vote share

In such a scenario, ADMK president Edappadi Palaniswamy would be the biggest winner and TN BJP President Annamalai would be the biggest loser. EPS polling 30% votes when TTV and OPS are not in ADMK will not only cement his place among the ADMK cadres but also convey that he is better placed than any other leader in the state to dethrone MK Stalin in 2026. He will get a big boost ahead of 2026 and many smaller parties will also move towards him. If NDA is stuck at 15%, it will imply that Annamalai was able to increase BJP’s vote share to just 7 to 8% from the perceived 3% now as analysts will point out PMK (5%) and TTV-OPS (3%) contributed about 7 to 8% and Annamalai could manage only 7 to 8%. NDA with 15% would not have won any seats as well. Clamour to replace Annamalai as TN BJP President will gather steam and he in all probability will be rehabilitated as a RS MP by his strongest supporter Sri Narendra Modi. And with this, the dream of many a Tamilian to have an alternate to the big two Dravidian parties will suffer a major setback. Once Annamalai is replaced, BJP will start piggy backing on the big two parties again like Congress is doing since 1967.

Scenario 2: NDA polling 30% and ADMK stuck at 15%

In this scenario, BJP will emerge as the second largest party and Annamalai will emerge as the firebrand leader to dethrone MK Stalin in 2026. In this scenario, NDA might have even won 7 to 12 seats as well. There will be a big rebellion in ADMK post this result and the pro-BJP leaders within ADMK will bray for EPS’s blood. A palace coup at Lloyds Road is bound to happen and BJP in all probability will cannibalise most of ADMK cadres, MLAs and leaders in the run up to 2026. A TTV or OPS victory at Theni or Ramnad could accelerate the disintegration of ADMK as well. Both will emerge stronger and their comeback chances to prominence will brighten all the more.

Scenario 3: NDA polling 25% vote share and ADMK managing 20%

Here again, NDA polling 25% will be considered as a big win for Annamalai and put them in poll position ahead of 2026. ADMK will have no other option but to be a junior ally to BJP in 2026 or the alliance will be on BJP’s term. EPS could well get replaced by a pro-BJP leader in ADMK and a long-term relationship like BJP and SS had for decades in Maharashtra could blossom between both the parties. Depending on how badly ADMK has fared in the 10 Pandya region seats, the strength of OPS and TTV will increase accordingly. Weaker the performance of ADMK in these 10 seats, stronger OPS and TTV become.

Scenario 4: Both NDA and ADMK polling between 20-23%

In such a scenario, both EPS and Annamalai can claim victory. EPS will be happy that he managed to retain the core voters of ADMK  and Annamalai can be happy about the fact that he grew the party from sub 3% to 15% plus. EPS and Annamalai could reconcile their differences and go on to fight 26 as equal allies and try to dethrone Stalin. Or if their egos are too strong, they can still fight it out going alone in 26 against Stalin and based on 26 outcome, new dynamics could set in for TN politics. This scenario 4 could be a Goldilocks scenario for DMK as no clear winner will emerge to take on Stalin in 26 and if both EPS and Annamalai decide to go solo in 2026.

Scenario 5: One of the two, ADMK or NDA crossing 35% decisively and the other collapses below 10%

In this scenario, whoever crosses the 35% mark may end up winning a sizeable number of seats as well or even win majority of the seats pushing DMK to the second place. This scenario is a wave scenario where a strong pro-Modi wave sets in or a strong anti-incumbency wave against Stalin sets in favouring ADMK big time. Whoever can pull of this turnaround will in all probability win 2026 as well as momentum will be in his favour and the other who goes down to less than 10% will pass onto oblivion.

Any of these scenarios can play out as nobody can second guess what is in voter’s mind. The author of this piece feels the probability of Scenario 3 is on the higher side – 50% chance it will play out. But it is always tough to predict TN voters given their ability to generate electoral waves and tsunamis.

However, 2024 is very crucial for EPS, Annamalai, OPS and TTV. It is a do or die battle for all four. It is a fight between Annamalai and EPS for the second place. DMK is extremely lucky enough to be sitting pretty despite a strong anti-incumbency against its government. Will DMK be lucky again in 2026 or a decisive mandate will be delivered by Tamilians to decide on the leader who can dethrone DMK in 2026? Is it going to be an EPS vs Stalin affair in 2026 or Stalin vs Annamalai battle in 2026?

June 4th 2024 will throw up the answer to this billion dollar question?

(Nanmozhian is an entrepreneur based out of Chennai.)

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The post June 4, 2024 – The D Day: Decoding Scenarios And Speculations appeared first on The Commune.

The Narendra Modi government tabled the White Paper on Indian economy that sheds light on the Congress-led UPA Government’s economic legacy, which can be characterized as a period of missed opportunities for growth, despite inheriting a thriving economy.

The White Paper specifically emphasizes the systematic degradation of the Indian banking system and public finance.

The macroeconomic foundations of a government play a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape of a country. Fiscal policy, centered on taxation and public spending, strives to strike a balance for economic stability and growth. Monetary policy, under the purview of the central bank, manages money supply and interest rates to influence inflation and overall economic activity.

Government policies on external trade, exchange rates, inflation control, public debt, labor markets, infrastructure, social programs, and financial system regulation collectively contribute to the economic well-being and resilience of the nation. Political stability and effective governance act as cornerstones, fostering confidence among investors and citizens alike. Together, these foundations define a country’s economic environment, determining its capacity for sustainable development and its ability to navigate challenges in the global economy.

Foundations Of Macroeconomic Governance And Consequences Of Neglect

When a government sacrifices all these measures for self-serving purposes and employs appeasement strategies with the sole objective of retaining power, regardless of the well-being of citizens or the nation, what are the consequences?

As per the 2003-04 Economic Survey, the UPA government inherited a thriving economy, providing substantial opportunities to enhance growth momentum while ensuring macroeconomic stability. However, during its ten-year tenure, there was a noticeable downturn in performance. In 2004, when the UPA government initiated its term, the economic landscape exhibited:

1. An overall economic growth of 8%.
2. Expansion of the industry and service sectors by over 7% each.
3. The agriculture sector registering a growth rate of 9%.

Despite the rapid economic growth observed between 2004 and 2008, attributed to NDA reforms and favorable global conditions during the 2002-07 economic boom, the UPA government failed to seize the opportunity to fortify the government’s budget position and invest in future infrastructure. The subsequent global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008, however, did not impact India.

Unrealized Potential Amid Economic Boom And Inflation Woes

An economic signifies robust growth characterized by increased economic activities, job creation, and rising incomes, ultimately enhancing living standards. In the context of a booming economy, when industry, agriculture, and service sectors contribute to an 8% growth, the outcomes encompass heightened innovation, increased government revenues, and a favorable impact on the trade balance. The sector’s strength attracts investments, encourages economic diversification, and facilitates social and infrastructure development. Overall, the robust performance enhances global competitiveness, contributing significantly to the nation’s prosperity and development, notwithstanding its failure to capitalize in the financial year 2004.

Additionally, the UPA government compromised price stability, witnessing a surge in inflation between 2009 and 2014. With high fiscal deficits persisting for six years, the average annual inflation rate reached double digits, imposing hardships on ordinary and poorer households. 

 For any developing economy price stability is crucial for a country due to several reasons. It fosters consumer confidence by allowing informed purchasing decisions and budget planning. Economic predictability is enhanced, encouraging investment and long-term planning for businesses. Additionally, stable prices aid in maintaining the purchasing power of a currency, reducing uncertainty, contributing to equitable income distribution, and ensuring social and political stability. Overall, price stability forms a foundation for economic health, growth, and prosperity, often targeted by central banks through monetary policy. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of a currency. Moderate inflation is often considered normal for a growing economy, but high or hyperinflation can have detrimental effects, eroding savings, distorting economic decisions, and impacting overall economic stability. Fiscal deficit is a key indicator that measures the government’s financial health with the difference between the total government revenue and its total expenditure. It represents the amount of money the government needs to borrow to meet its expenses when its expenditures exceed the revenue it generates. A high fiscal deficit relative to GDP indicates that the government is spending beyond its means, potentially leading to increased borrowing and debt accumulation leading to economic disablement.

Impact Of UPA’s Fiscal Policies, Banking System Deterioration, And External Commercial Borrowing Decline

Banking systems are the backbone of any economy they help sustain an economy but Bad debts and gross non-performing assets (NPAs) weaken a country’s economy by creating a ripple effect across the financial system. When borrowers default on loans, banks and financial institutions incur losses, impacting their profitability and overall stability. Large amounts of bad debts and NPAs erode the capital base of these institutions, limiting their capacity to lend and support economic activities. This credit squeeze can impede business expansion, hinder investment, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. Additionally, financial institutions may become more risk-averse, further restricting credit flow. The Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio in Public Sector Banks (PSB) rose to 12.3%n including restructured loans, due to political interference by the UPA government in commercial lending decisions of PSBs.Many problematic loans remained undisclosed, as highlighted by a Credit Suisse report in March 2014. The report revealed that the top 200 companies with an interest coverage ratio of less than one owed around ₹8.6 lakh crore to banks and nearly 44% of these loans were yet to be officially recognized as problem assets. In 2018, during a response to a Parliamentary panel, former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan emphasized that a substantial number of bad loans had originated from 2006 to 2008.

 The growth of external commercial borrowings (ECB) experienced a significant decline, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.1% from FY04 to FY14, compared to a much lower annual rate of 4.5% in the nine years from FY14 to FY23. This decline left the economy vulnerable in 2013, leading to a sharp rise in the US dollar. The relationship between external commercial borrowing (ECB) and the rise of the US dollar is intricate, and shaped by the dynamics of international finance. As countries partake in substantial ECB, borrowing funds from foreign entities, the prevalent choice of currency is often the US dollar, given its status as a global reserve currency. This borrowing contributes to an augmented demand for the US dollar, leading to its appreciation against other currencies interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve, market perceptions of the US dollar as a safe-haven currency, and the broader implications on global liquidity. Reducing the ECB was a nuanced decision due to its potential impact on the financial flexibility of businesses and governments because it serves as a vital avenue for accessing funds from global financial markets. A significant reduction signals constraints in obtaining foreign capital, limiting financing options for crucial projects. This limitation impede infrastructure development, slowing economic progress and hindering a country’s ability to meet its developmental goals. Moreover, a sudden decline in the ECB indicates a loss of confidence in a nation’s economic stability, possibly leading to currency depreciation, increased inflation, and disruptions in international trade and investment relationships. 

Depreciation of Rupee And Declining Foreign Exchange Reserves

 The UPA government’s compromise on external and macroeconomic stability resulted in a substantial depreciation of the Indian rupee, plummeting by 36% against the US dollar between 2011 and 2013. The depreciation of the Indian rupee refers to a decline in the value of the rupee in the foreign exchange market concerning other currencies. It means that the rupee’s exchange rate has decreased, and it now takes more rupees to purchase a unit of another currency an excessive or rapid depreciation may lead to increased import costs, inflationary pressures, and challenges for businesses and consumers who rely on imported goods and services.

The UPA government faced a significant decline in foreign exchange reserves, dropping from approximately USD 294 billion in July 2011 to around USD 256 billion in August 2013. By the end of September 2013, the reserves were only sufficient to cover a little over 6 months of imports. A decline in foreign exchange reserves is detrimental for a developing country due to potential impacts on currency stability, hindered debt servicing capabilities, and reduced import capacity leading to supply shortages and inflation, including balance of payments issues. Governments and central banks strive to maintain optimal reserves to ensure economic stability, establishing sufficient reserves to withstand external shock but they failed to do so.

UPA’s Response To Global Financial Crisis:

 In response to this economic challenge, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) initiated a special window for Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR(B)) deposits to attract USD deposits at a high premium in August-September 2013. Despite being a costly solution reminiscent of the 1991 Balance of Payments crisis, the amount raised from NRIs through FCNR(B) surpassed the 1991 IMF bailout by 12 times. The UPA government In its pursuit of sustaining high economic growth severely compromised macroeconomic foundations, marked by profound mismanagement and indifference to years of growth and investment, essential economic, social, and administrative reforms were neglected. The 2008 GFC originated in the United States, fueled by a housing bubble and the proliferation of risky subprime mortgages. Complex financial instruments like mortgage-backed securities and global interconnectedness amplified the crisis. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 triggered a credit freeze, leading to a severe worldwide economic downturn and necessitating unprecedented government interventions to stabilize financial institutions and stimulate recovery but the Indian market or the government did not have a severe impact.

Spillover Effects, Economic Imbalances, Persistent Fiscal Deficits And Populist Measures

The UPA Government’s response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis through a fiscal stimulus package, intended to mitigate spill-over effects, turned out to be more problematic than the issue it aimed to tackle. The stimulus was beyond the Union Government’s financial capacity and sustainability. While India’s growth slowed to 3.1% in FY09 during the GFC, it swiftly recovered to 7.9% in FY10, with limited impact compared to other economies.

In economics, a spillover effect, also known as a spillover or externalities, refers to the unintended impact that an economic transaction, policy, or event has on parties not directly involved. These effects can be positive or negative and extend beyond the primary participants in the activity. For example, a company investing in cleaner production methods may positively impact the surrounding environment, leading to a beneficial spill-over effect. Conversely, pollution generated by one firm affecting the health of nearby residents represents a negative spill-over effect. Understanding and managing spill-over effects are crucial for comprehensive economic analysis and policy formulation.

 Despite this, the misguided stimulus persisted for six consecutive years, leading to a Gross Fiscal Deficit (GFD) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio of at least 4.5% from FY09 to FY14. The revenue deficit also surged, rising from 1.07% of GDP in FY08 to 4.6% in FY09. The Kelkar Committee for Fiscal Consolidation in FY 2012-13 highlighted risks of runaway fiscal deficits and unsustainable public debt levels. The fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and their relationship with GDP are pivotal indicators in economic analysis, offering insights into a country’s fiscal health and government financial management. The fiscal deficit represents the government’s borrowing needs, calculated as the difference between total expenditures and revenues (excluding borrowings) reveals the extent to which the government relies on borrowing for day-to-day expenses. To counteract the impact, the UPA government issued special bonds, replacing cash subsidies, leading to increased fiscal and revenue deficits. The government’s securities grew 9.7 times in 2012-13. Capital Expenditure for public investment declined from 31% to 16%, adversely affecting infrastructure development. The economy remained supply-constrained, resulting in higher inflation, a larger current account deficit, and an overvalued currency in 2013.

 In the face of supply constraints, higher inflation, a larger current account deficit, and an overvalued currency, a developing economy encounters multifaceted challenges like Limited production capabilities and inefficient supply chains that impede the availability of goods, causing increased prices and negatively impacting overall economic output. Higher production costs contribute to inflation, diminishing the purchasing power of the currency and affecting consumers’ living costs. A larger current account deficit, exacerbated by reliance on imports, strains the trade balance and foreign exchange reserves. An overvalued currency hampers export competitiveness, worsening the deficit. These factors, reflecting economic imbalances, necessitate comprehensive policy solutions to balance inflation control, boost domestic production, and manage external challenges. The consequences, including reduced living standards and potential supply shortages, highlight the urgency for structural reforms, infrastructure enhancement, and diversification to ensure sustained and balanced growth in the long run.

 Finally to forget all these they resorted to short-term populist measures, as highlighted in the RBI’s report on Macroeconomic and Monetary developments in April 2009. Large unspent funds for social sector schemes hampered the effectiveness of government initiatives, with 6.4% under spending across 14 major social and rural sector ministries. Health expenditure was burdened by out-of-pocket expenses. The focus on unproductive spending allocated significant funds to consumption rather than productive investment. Initiatives like the Sixth Central Pay Commission and the Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme incurred substantial fiscal costs without yielding significant economic benefits. A World Bank Policy research working paper found no evidence of improved investment, consumption, or increased wages resulting from the debt waiver initiative. Overall, the fiscal years 2005 to 2014 witnessed excessive unproductive government borrowings, ineffective spending strategies, and revenue losses due to policy failures.

In conclusion, the UPA government’s compromises, mismanagement, and policy failures have left a lasting impact on India’s economic history, marked by missed opportunities, fiscal challenges, and a degradation of essential foundations for sustained growth and prosperity.

Thankfully, due to the good karma of our ancestors, PM Modi came to power to pull India out of the mess created by Congress.

Satheesh is a freelance writer.

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The post White Paper: Shedding Light On The Black Era Of UPA’s Economic Mismanagement And Missed Opportunities appeared first on The Commune.

Chennai city that has recently faced devastating floods, is now attempting to return to normalcy. The aftermath of the disastrous floods has left the northern areas of Chennai severely damaged, prompting criticism of the DMK government’s handling of the situation. Despite the visible challenges, the DMK government and its IT wing have sought to project an image of normalcy, downplaying the extent of the damage.

In an effort to deflect criticism, the DMK government and its IT wing have drawn comparisons between the recent floods and the floods in 2015, attempting to showcase their performance as superior to the previous ADMK government. Alleged fact-checker Iyan Karthikeyan, relying on data provided by TNM, a DMK mouthpiece, attempted to prove that the rainfall in 2023 exceeded that of 2015.

In the nearly 20-minute video, YouTurn claims it was only news channels like NewsJ that were spreading “fake news” that 2015 saw more rain than 2023. In the article by The News Minute, they quoted weather bloggers Chennai Rains’ Srikanth insisting on examining a 48-hour timeframe in the context of the 2023 floods. This distinction he said arises because the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) records rainfall data from 8.30 am to 8.30 am the following day. In the recent floods, the peak rainfall occurred between 8.30 pm on December 3 and 8.30 pm on 4 December 2023.

The DMK IT wing, in connivance with YouTurn, has not only defended the government’s narrative but also targeted journalists reporting on the ground. Journalists such as Red Pix Felix, who contradicted the official stance by stating that 2015 witnessed more rainfall than 2023, became the subject of scrutiny and accusations of spreading fake news.

It is noteworthy that journalists like Dhanya Rajendran, Ahmed Shabir, Avudaiyappan, and Devendran Palanisamy, who are known for peddling propaganda favourable to the DMK, reported on the flood situation without directly criticizing the government. However, the DMK IT wing seemingly could not tolerate any dissent, leading to attacks against their own Dravidianist journalists.

In an attempt to settle the debate, the regional meteorological center of Tamil Nadu IMD released cumulative rain data for Nungambakkam and Meenambakkam, comparing the rainfall between October 1 and December 10 of 2015 and 2023. The data clearly indicates that 2015 experienced higher rainfall, contradicting the claims made by the DMK IT wing and YouTurn.

In an attempt to substantiate their claim that the rainfall in 2023 surpassed that of 2015, the DMK IT wing selected two arbitrary intervals, showcasing a significantly higher single-day rainfall in 2023 compared to 2015. However, the DMK IT wing, seemingly underestimating the intelligence of those not aligned with the DMK, committed a glaring and significant error when choosing intervals for the comparison between the rainfall in 2015 and 2023.

What the DMK showed:

#மிக்ஜாம்_புயல் அன்று ஒரே நாளில் 450+ மிமி மழை பொழிந்துள்ளதாக @ChennaiRmc கூறியுள்ளது. அதே போல் 2015ல் ஒரே நாளில் அதிகபட்சமாக 230மிமி தான் மழை பதிவாகியுள்ளது என்றும் கூறியுள்ளது.

மீனம்பாக்கத்தில் 2015ல 400மிமி க்கும் குறைவு. 2023ல் 500+mm.

இதை வேற தூக்கிட்டு சுத்துது ஒரு க்ரூப் pic.twitter.com/gXYjHND2oq

— சாய் லட்சுமிகாந்த் பாரதி (@sailaks11) December 12, 2023

To conduct a fair comparison between the rainfall in 2015 and 2023, it is imperative to use equal intervals. However, in an effort to portray that the rainfall in 2023 was higher, the DMK IT wing opted for a longer interval for 2023 and a shorter interval for 2015 rainfall. During the period of the AIADMK regime, the DMK IT wing chose the interval from December 1st to December 3rd, reporting around 300mm of rain during that time. Conversely, to depict higher rainfall during the DMK regime, they extended the interval from December 1st to December 6th, citing a rainfall of 450mm during the same period. A proper comparison between the rainfall in 2015 and 2023 should involve equal intervals.

In their attempt to assert that the rainfall in 2023 was significantly greater, the DMK IT wing, seemingly considering themselves the sole intelligent entities on the planet, made a misguided effort to deceive the public. This misleading information propagated by the DMK IT wing warrants scrutiny

Here is the correct comparison.

Ashok Kumar is a PhD scholar at India premier scientific research institute.

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The post How DMK IT Wing Used A Flawed Interval To Show That 2023 Chennai Rains Were Higher Than 2015 appeared first on The Commune.